Polymarket Ceasefire Bet Nets $663K, Insider Suspected

• Four wallets collected $663,000 combined profit on a single Polymarket prediction.
• Accounts were created and funded on April 7, hours before the ceasefire announcement.
• Each wallet placed exactly one bet, with no prior trading history on the platform.

Four wallets on the prediction market platform Polymarket collected $663,000 in profit after betting that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire by April 7. On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged the trades, citing patterns consistent with insider knowledge.

The Trades

The wallets entered the market when odds for a ceasefire stood between 2.9% and 10.3%, figures that reflect a very low probability. Combined, the four accounts staked roughly $58,000. When the ceasefire materialized and the market resolved “Yes,” that stake returned approximately $721,000.

One wallet, identified as “25xp,” entered at 3.9 cents per share and purchased 466,604 shares, walking away with $218,498, a return of 1,115%. Another wallet, tagged “S7777,” bought 174,764 shares at 10.3 cents and collected $174,065, a gain of 867%.

A third wallet entered at 6.7 cents, holding 155,118 shares and netting $144,152, a 1,382% return. A fourth wallet bought shares at just 2.9 cents, investing roughly $4,020 and receiving $129,473, a return of 3,120%.

Why Suspicion Arose

The timing drew scrutiny. Lookonchain noted that most of the wallets were newly created and funded on April 7 itself, the same day the event was resolved. Each account placed a single bet on this market and had no other trading activity on the platform.

The pattern, new accounts, single bets, near-perfect timing, and low entry prices raised questions about whether the traders possessed non-public information about the diplomatic talks before markets or the broader public were aware.

How Polymarket Works

Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain, meaning all wallet activity is publicly visible and traceable. The platform allows users to bet on real-world outcomes using USDC stablecoins. It does not currently enforce formal insider trading rules, as prediction markets occupy a legal gray area in many jurisdictions.

Notably, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran carries broad market implications. Diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East reduces oil price risk premiums and supports demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and equities. 

For context, Bitcoin hit a three-week high of $72,732 after a 4.7% rise over the past day. Ethereum surged higher with 7.3% gain to trade at $2,253. Similarly, XRP trades at $1.38 after a 5.2% uptick in the same period. 

Meanwhile, oil prices have seen the biggest impact, trading at $96 after a roughly 15% drop over the past day. 

Related: Bitcoin Hits Three-Week High, Oil Slides as US–Iran Ceasefire Eases Market Fears