1-in-100,000 Chance: Solo Bitcoin Miner Defies 300-Year Odds to Solve Block 313

The Bitcoin mining community is discussing another incredible case of a digital lottery, when a solo miner with a hashrate of just 70 TH/s, comparable to the power of one or two old devices, achieved the nearly impossible — he single-handedly mined block 313 on the Solo CKPool. 

According to calculations by pool administrator Con Kolivas, known as DR -ck, the miner’s odds of finding these blocks were about one in 100,000 per day. With such power, the expected time to find a block, on average, is about 300 years.

Why block 313 proves decentralization is still alive

The lucky user received the full block reward of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, which at the current Bitcoin price amounts to at least $220,000. Kolivas also highlights an important nuance regarding network fees in the mined block: the minimum fee rate returned to 1 sat/vB. 

The previous block on the pool also had an abnormally low minimum fee. This was not an intentional change, as the developer emphasizes, but was caused by default settings after updating the Bitcoin node.

The event is taking place against the backdrop of ongoing industrialization in mining, where giants like Riot Platforms and MARA Digital Holdings dominate. They do sell Bitcoin yet still maintain a large share of the BTC mining market. 

Nevertheless, despite record network difficulty exceeding 140 trillion hashes per second, solo miners continue to occasionally crack blocks. Over the past 12 months, 22 such wins have been recorded, which on average happens a little more than once every two weeks.

This confirms that Bitcoin remains a memoryless process. Each individual hash has the same tiny chance of becoming the winning one, regardless of whether it is sent from a massive data center in Texas or China, or from the garage of some crypto enthusiast.