Trump Warns Failed US-Iran Deal Would Be “Very Painful”

• Trump says it will be “very painful” for Iran if a new deal is not reached through talks.
• Vance heads to Pakistan as Lebanon strikes test hopes for a broader US-Iran settlement.
• Bitcoin holds near $72K as traders watch Hormuz risks and fresh diplomatic headlines.

US-Iran deal hopes rose on Thursday. President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Tehran was within reach. Washington is also prepared to send a high-level delegation to Pakistan for talks aimed at turning a fragile ceasefire into a broader settlement.

Trump told NBC News he was “very optimistic” about the chances of a deal. He also warned that failure to reach one would be “very painful,” keeping military pressure tied to the diplomatic track. 

Pakistan Talks Face Lebanon and Hormuz Pressure

The next phase now moves to Islamabad, Pakistan. According to a report, the White House said Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. team, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with formal talks set to begin on Saturday. 

Reuters reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pushed for a two-week ceasefire and invited both sides to pursue a fuller settlement after nearly six weeks of war.

Still, the ceasefire has already shown signs of strain. Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon, while Washington and Tehran publicly disagreed over whether Lebanon falls under the truce. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had authorized direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah and formalizing peaceful relations. At the same time, he made clear that Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would continue, adding fresh pressure around the US-Iran deal.

Another key signal came from the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the route remains heavily disrupted despite the ceasefire. The first non-Iranian oil tanker has also crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the truce, marking an early sign of limited movement through the waterway

That matters because Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Any setback to the US-Iran deal could quickly raise fears over oil supply, shipping delays, and transport costs across global markets. 

Crypto Stays on Edge as US-Iran Deal Faces Key Test

Crypto markets also stayed tied to the war headlines. Bitcoin traded near $71,900 on Thursday, while Ethereum changed hands near $2,204 after both assets gained earlier on signs that immediate escalation had eased. 

However, in an X post, analyst Ted said Bitcoin failed to hold above the $72,000 level. Ted identified the $69,000 to $70,000 area as the next key support zone. If that range holds, BTC could see one final pump before a possible move to fresh lows.

Source: X

For now, the US-Iran deal has opened a narrow path for diplomacy. Fighting around Lebanon continues, and key terms remain unresolved. The Islamabad talks may now determine whether this pause leads to a broader settlement or only a temporary break in the conflict.

Related: US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk as Bitcoin Rallies on War Relief