Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock: Two Analysts Say Buy Before the May Catalysts Hit

TLDR

• Citi placed Alphabet on a 90-day upside Catalyst Watch, citing a strong lineup of product events through July 13.
• Key upcoming catalysts include Google Cloud Next (Apr 22–24), Q1 earnings (Apr 29), and Google I/O (May 19–20).
• Guggenheim kept its Buy rating and $375 price target, forecasting Q1 revenue of $107 billion — up 19% year-over-year.
• Google Cloud backlog hit $243 billion at year-end, up 161% year-over-year, with Cloud growth projected above 50% YoY in Q1.
• Alphabet’s 2026 capex guidance of $175–$185 billion is nearly double what it spent in 2025.

Two Wall Street firms are warming up to Alphabet ahead of a busy stretch of product events and earnings. Citi and Guggenheim both issued bullish notes on Monday, each pointing to a calendar packed with potential stock-moving announcements.

Alphabet Inc., GOOGL

Citi analyst Ronald Josey added Alphabet to a 90-day upside Catalyst Watch, covering the period through July 13. The move was driven by what he called a “favorable catalyst path” — a string of events that could push the stock higher over the next few months.

The bank flagged Google Cloud Next from April 22–24 as the first major marker. That’s followed by Q1 earnings on April 29, YouTube’s Brandcast on May 13, Google I/O on May 19–20, and Google Marketing Live on May 20.

Citi expects product updates tied to Gemini models, Search, YouTube, and Cloud across all of these events. The bank described the online advertising market as “relatively healthy,” which it says supports continued Search revenue growth.

On the consumer side, Citi noted Gemini now has more than 750 million monthly active users. On the enterprise side, it said demand for Google Cloud and AI services “remains robust.”

The firm said it believes Alphabet could beat Wall Street’s revenue and operating income estimates as new products roll out in the coming weeks.

Guggenheim Sees 19% Revenue Growth in Q1

Guggenheim held its Buy rating and $375 price target on Alphabet, with a detailed breakdown of what it expects from Q1 2026. The firm is projecting revenue of $107 billion — a 19% jump from the same period last year.

Breaking that down: Search and Other revenue is expected to grow 17% year-over-year. YouTube Ads are forecast to climb 12%. Cloud is expected to grow more than 50% year-over-year — the standout number in the mix.

The Cloud backlog adds fuel to that outlook. At year-end, it stood at $243 billion, up 161% year-over-year. That’s a pipeline that’s hard to ignore.

Guggenheim also ran a buyside survey on April 12 with 98 participants. Results showed above-consensus expectations for Search, YouTube Ads, and Cloud — with respondents also expecting capex to keep climbing into 2027.

Capex Nearly Doubles in 2026

Alphabet’s 2026 capex guidance of $175–$185 billion is almost double the $91 billion it spent in 2025. That’s a lot of money going out the door, but Guggenheim expects the company to surpass its prior peak free cash flow levels by 2028.

Looking further ahead, Guggenheim flagged the Olympics, World Cup, and U.S. midterm elections as tailwinds for YouTube’s ad pricing in 2026. Higher viewership events tend to push up cost-per-thousand impressions, which benefits the platform.

Separately, Mizuho raised its price target on Alphabet to $420 from $410, keeping an Outperform rating. The firm cited stronger-than-expected signals from the Anthropic partnership and revised its Cloud revenue estimate upward, projecting it could reach $149 billion by 2027 — well above Bloomberg’s consensus of $116 billion.

Alphabet’s Q1 2026 earnings are scheduled for April 29.

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