Radev’s coalition wins Bulgarian election, eyes PM role

Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition has won the parliamentary election with 37-45% of the vote. The market for Radev becoming Bulgaria’s next Prime Minister is at 96.6% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Radev’s coalition may achieve an absolute majority, which would put him in direct line for appointment as Prime Minister. The Radev PM market has moved 15.5 points in one week, reflecting the election result and the coalition’s path to a governing majority.

The market has daily USDC volume of $24,076, with $3,810 needed to move the odds 5 points. The 91.5% price held through a 4-point dip caused by a large sell order, then recovered, suggesting buyers are willing to defend the position at current levels.

Radev has promised practical relations with Moscow and taken a Kremlin-friendly stance throughout the campaign. If he becomes Prime Minister, this would shift Bulgaria’s foreign policy orientation within the EU and NATO. The main risk to the current odds is a coalition failure or internal party disputes that prevent him from forming a government.

Traders should watch for coalition agreements with GERB-SDS and any formal nomination by President Iliana Iotova. These two events will determine whether Radev’s 91.5% probability converts to a confirmed appointment.

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