'Early signals of trouble' flagged as analyst predicts new Trump-fueled GOP bloodbath

President Donald Trump's rising unpopularity and declining approval rating could put Republican candidates in down-ballot races in jeopardy, an analyst reported on Monday.

Salon's Russell Payne described how Trump's party could be gearing up for serious losses in upcoming midterm elections, especially as the U.S.-Israel war in Iran continues. However, those losses might not be as dramatic as recent past presidents have suffered during their respective administrations.

"Early signals of trouble go beyond just topline approval numbers of the GOP party leader," Payne wrote. "Dan Patrick, the Republican speaker of the Texas House, said last week that he believed the party would 'have a tough time' retaining control of the House there, which they have controlled for more than two decades, with a current advantage of 88 to 62."

Democrats have eyed down-ballot races to flip traditionally red states blue, including a focus on Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — plus 11 other states where Democrats are aiming to take control of state legislatures.

"Part of this push is simply the fact that Democrats are making a concerted effort to leave fewer state legislative seats uncontested in the general election," Payne wrote. "And the committee boasts that it has already flipped some 30 state legislative seats since Trump won re-election in 2024, while Republicans have not flipped any seats."

Peverill Squire, a professor emeritus at the University of Missouri, described how Democrats could make major headway come November.

"Things are lining up well for the Democrats’ chances at the state level in November," Squire told Salon. "If people continue to sour on the Trump administration, it will, of course, hurt the Republican party’s prospects down the ballot."

Republicans have acknowledged the fight ahead. In a memo from the Republican State Leadership Committee, they wrote that "they believe they can convince voters to split their ticket by focusing on issues of economic growth and public safety, where they believe they have an edge over Democrats," Payne explained. "They also indicated that they are focusing on defense in Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Texas, Alabama, North Carolina and New Hampshire."

For GOP strategists focused on competitive state legislative races, the tactic has shifted to maintaining the majority and retaining current seats.

"It’s also clear that Republicans understand that they are up for a fierce battle for state legislative control, announcing in their own target map that 'success this cycle will not be defined by sweeping gains, but by whether state Republicans can withstand sustained pressure in the most competitive districts,'" Payne added.