XRP stuck below $1.50 – Why price breakout looks unlikely

Ripple’s XRP is fragile, and it looks like that’s not changing anytime soon. While there’s minimal danger of an immediate breakdown, one does wonder… are XRP rallies struggling to hold?

Reserves hold even during times of weak price

Recent data showed XRP Ledger exchange reserves holding at 2.76 billion, even as XRP traded near $1.3 and continued to fall. This is important because rising reserves during times of weakness often mean there are more tokens to be sold.

Source: CryptoQuant

Furthermore, this is a break from earlier times, when reserves and price moved in tandem. Now that’s not the case, so rebounds may be met with overhead supply.

Adding to that, Binance’s Exchange Supply Share was also high (near 2.76 at press time), even as prices slid. Therefore, a sizable portion of XRP is staying in circulation.

Source: CryptoQuant

This selling pressure has so far led to sideways movement or drops, unless exchange reserves start to fall.

Past periods of rising Binance reserves have sometimes come before XRP pullbacks. This is because supply on exchanges often outweighed demand. The situation right now looks quite similar.

Whale exchange inflows spike

Now, consider this.

Per CryptoQuant, Whale to Exchange Transactions have spiked repeatedly. Flows recently jumped above 40,000 and, at past extremes, neared 60,000.

Source: CryptoQuant

Those bursts came alongside price slides. Large holders may be moving tokens to exchanges to distribute.

All of this is stash that’s ready to sell, making rebounds more difficult. Furthermore, rallies frequently encounter resistance as large holders use their strength to exit positions.

XRP improves, but no one’s confident

At press time, XRP traded around $1.43, posting a modest 2.7% gain. Recovery may be underway. RSI was above neutral, while MACD turned positive with a new bullish crossover. However, the move is weak.

Source: TradingView

Buyers are stepping in, but not aggressively enough to flip the trend. Unless XRP can break and hold above the $1.50-$1.55 range, these upticks will fade… especially with sale-ready XRP on hand.