South Africa Inflation Rises to 3.1% in March 2026

The figure matched market forecasts and reflects growing price pressures across key sectors of the economy.

Key Drivers of Price Pressures

March 2026 category breakdowns unverified and unavailable. Core inflation was 3.0% in February 2026. This followed a seven-month low of 3% the prior month.

March 2026 food inflation unverified. Unverified for March 2026. Unverified.

The Middle East conflict began to affect domestic prices. However, its full impact remains limited so far. Unverified.

Approximate weights per Stats SA: Food & non-alc bev 17.2%, Housing & utilities 15.9%, Transport 16.4% (2024 basket). These categories shape overall trends according to Trading Economics data.

Broader Context and Outlook

Average 1960-2024 ~5.8%; peak 15.5% 1981; verify exact.

SARB expects ~4% in Q2 2026. SARB forecasts return to 3% late 2027. The South African Reserve Bank targets 3%. Confirmed held at 6.75% in March 2026; November 2025 cut unverified here.

Upside risks stem from the Iran war. SARB baseline: ~4% near-term then back to 3%. It expects a return to target by late 2027.

Investors face bond yield shifts and rand pressure. The SARB may hike rates if forecasts hold. SARB policy projection: one cut implied in 2026 H2. Watch May data for clues on policy shifts.

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