IBM (IBM) Stock Plunges 7% Despite Beating Q1 Earnings Expectations

Key Takeaways

• International Business Machines delivered Q1 EPS of $1.91, surpassing the Street’s $1.81 projection
• Quarterly revenue reached $15.92 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts of $15.62 billion
• Shares plummeted approximately 7% during extended trading hours following the report
• Company maintained existing full-year outlook without adjustment
• Red Hat Enterprise Linux expansion showed signs of slowing, with management citing supply chain disruptions and federal budget uncertainties

International Business Machines delivered first-quarter results on Wednesday that surpassed analyst expectations across key metrics. Yet investors weren’t buying it. Shares tumbled roughly 7% after the closing bell as the market zeroed in on one critical absence — an upward revision to the company’s annual forecast.

International Business Machines Corporation, IBM

The tech giant reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, comfortably ahead of the Street’s $1.81 projection. Quarterly sales totaled $15.92 billion, clearing the $15.62 billion estimate and representing a 9% jump compared to the same period last year.

Profitability also improved, with net income climbing to $1.22 billion ($1.28 per diluted share), compared with $1.06 billion ($1.12 per share) during the fourth quarter of 2024. On paper, the performance looked solid.

The company’s software division generated $7.05 billion in revenue — an 11% increase that narrowly exceeded the $7.02 billion analyst projection. Red Hat, the enterprise software platform IBM acquired for $34 billion back in 2019, delivered 13% revenue expansion, improving from the 10% pace recorded in the previous quarter.

That sequential improvement in Red Hat’s performance typically signals positive momentum. However, a closer examination of Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) revealed emerging challenges.

RHEL Momentum Faces Headwinds

Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh highlighted a slowdown in RHEL revenue expansion during the earnings call, attributing the deceleration to two primary factors: diminished federal government contract activity following the government shutdown in late 2025, and ongoing disruptions in the hardware supply chain.

The consulting arm brought in $5.27 billion, reflecting 4% year-over-year growth, though it fell slightly short of the $5.28 billion StreetAccount estimate. While not catastrophic, the minor miss provided no positive catalyst.

Regarding forward-looking projections, IBM reaffirmed its existing full-year targets: revenue growth exceeding 5% on a constant currency basis and free cash flow improvement of $1 billion. Chief Executive Arvind Krishna characterized the quarter as a “strong start,” though the company declined to elevate expectations.

Middle East Tensions Don’t Derail Performance

IBM also commented on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where U.S.-Iran hostilities erupted on February 28. Surprisingly, CEO Krishna reported that the company experienced its strongest revenue growth in the Middle East region in decades during the first quarter.

The company also finalized its purchase of Confluent, a data streaming platform provider, near quarter-end. The earnings release did not disclose transaction details.

Shares of IBM have declined approximately 15% year-to-date in 2026, reflecting broader pressure on software stocks as investors grapple with artificial intelligence’s potential disruption to legacy software models. Wednesday’s quarterly report did little to shift that sentiment.

The roughly 7% after-hours decline pushed the stock toward $235, down from Wednesday’s closing price near $252.

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