Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock Plunges 10% After Slashing Production Forecasts

Key Takeaways

• Shares of FCX declined approximately 8% during premarket hours Thursday, marking the sharpest single-session decline since September 2025.
• First-quarter adjusted earnings per share reached $0.57 on revenue of $6.23B, surpassing Wall Street projections.
• Both copper and gold sales volumes decreased compared to the prior-year period, driven by lower Grasberg production.
• 2026 annual copper forecast reduced from 3.4B pounds to 3.1B pounds; gold projection lowered from 800K ounces to 650K ounces.
• Production setbacks trace back to a fatal September 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg that claimed seven lives and disrupted mining activities.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) delivered a respectable first-quarter performance on the surface. Yet the market’s response told a different story.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., FCX

Shares plummeted nearly 8% during Thursday’s premarket session following the mining giant’s decision to significantly reduce its full-year production estimates for both copper and gold. The decline positioned FCX for its steepest one-day percentage loss in approximately seven months.

The company’s quarterly performance exceeded analyst expectations. Earnings on an adjusted basis totaled 57 cents per share, topping consensus estimates of 47 cents. Total revenue climbed nearly 9% on a year-over-year basis to $6.23 billion, comfortably surpassing the Street’s $5.73 billion projection.

However, the positive top-line figures obscured underlying operational challenges.

Copper volumes totaled 657 million pounds during the quarter, representing a substantial decrease from 872 million pounds recorded in the comparable 2025 period. Gold production registered 121,000 ounces—significantly trailing last year’s output, though exceeding the company’s own 60,000-ounce guidance issued earlier this year. Molybdenum emerged as the quarter’s standout performer, with 24 million pounds sold, surpassing both prior-year results and internal targets.

The copper and gold production shortfall originates from operational challenges at Grasberg, the company’s flagship Indonesian mining facility.

Grasberg Operations Continue to Struggle

A September 2025 mud rush tragedy at the facility resulted in seven worker fatalities and triggered an operational suspension. Production has continued at diminished capacity in the months since, and Thursday’s announcement confirmed that the path to normalization remains longer than initially anticipated.

Freeport revised its complete 2026 copper production forecast downward to 3.1 billion pounds from the previously communicated 3.4 billion pounds. Gold output expectations were similarly adjusted to 650,000 ounces from 800,000. Management attributed both downward revisions to a protracted Grasberg restart timeline, specifically noting required “modifications to ore loading infrastructure.”

These represent substantial forecast adjustments—not minor tweaks. The combined revisions signal a material departure from guidance provided to shareholders mere months earlier.

Executive Commentary

The company refrained from providing specific timing for when Grasberg would achieve full operational capacity.

By early Thursday trading, FCX shares had extended losses to more than 10%, exceeding the initial premarket decline.

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