3 Warning Signs That Bitcoin’s Rally May Be At Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed more than 10% over the past month despite persistent volatility. The asset briefly surged past $79,000 in yesterday’s session. 

This marked its highest level since early February before easing slightly. At press time, BTC was trading at $78,258, up 2.54% on the day. 

However, despite the strong rebound, three key market indicators are now flashing a cautionary signal.

3 Reasons Bitcoin’s 10% Monthly Surge Could Be Hitting a Wall

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the rally is fueled by activity in perpetual futures. He added that spot demand continues to contract, although at a slower pace. 

Moreno compared the setup to January, when BTC peaked near $98,000 before reversing sharply.

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Glassnode data shows the 24-hour simple moving average of Short-Term Holder Realized Profit has climbed to $4.4 million per hour. That figure is nearly three times the $1.5 million threshold that has marked every local top year-to-date.

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Lastly, Glassnode stated that BTC broke above the True Market Mean at $78,100, a “development that carries meaningful cyclical significance,” as per the firm. However, the next upside target is at $80,500, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.

Investors who accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 are now approaching profits. According to Glassnode, this cohort has a strong incentive to exit positions. Furthermore, a recovery toward $80,000 would push more than 54% of recent buyers back into profit. 

Thus, the warning signals are piling up. Whether fresh demand can absorb the distribution pressure will determine if the rebound extends or reverses.

The post 3 Warning Signs That Bitcoin’s Rally May Be At Risk appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-rally-warning-signs-april-2026/