Hyperliquid price forecast: HYPE holds above $40 as leverage builds

TL;DR

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) holds near $42 with a bullish structure above $40.
• The bullish structure is supported by rising futures Open Interest and positive funding rates. 

Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades above $42 on Monday, sustaining its upward trajectory from an ascending trendline. 

While the broader trend remains constructive, signs of cooling retail interest contrast with a steady buildup in leveraged positions, creating a mixed near-term outlook for the decentralized exchange token.

Retail momentum fades as social dominance drops

Retail-driven momentum appears to be weakening. Data from Santiment shows Hyperliquid’s social dominance has declined sharply to 0.137%, down from 0.688% at the height of the US-Iran conflict in late March. 

The drop suggests reduced retail attention as geopolitical tensions ease, removing a key narrative driver that previously fueled speculative interest in the DEX.

In contrast, derivatives activity is heating up. According to CoinGlass, HYPE futures Open Interest (OI) has climbed roughly 3% over the past 24 hours to $1.65 billion, signaling an increase in outstanding leveraged positions.

Funding rates remain positive at 0.0077%, indicating that long positions continue to dominate. This persistent positive funding over the past month reflects growing bullish conviction among leveraged traders, even as spot-driven retail enthusiasm cools.

HYPE price outlook: Rising wedge puts $40 support in focus

The HYPE/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as HYPE is consolidating within a rising wedge.

The token remains supported above both its 50-day EMA at $38.98 and 200-day EMA at $34.90, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.

Momentum indicators suggest steady but controlled upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, pointing to positive but not overbought conditions, while the MACD is trending higher toward a bullish crossover, hinting at fading downside pressure.

If the bulls push higher, they would encounter immediate resistance at the $43.71 level, which caps the current recovery and aligns with the upper wedge boundary near $46.80. A decisive break above this zone could trigger a stronger bullish continuation.

However, if the market undergoes a correction, the ascending trendline support near $41.21 remains critical. 

A breakdown below this level would likely expose the 50-day EMA at $38.98, with the 200-day EMA at $34.90 acting as a deeper demand zone if selling pressure intensifies.

While Hyperliquid’s structure remains bullish above $40, the divergence between fading retail interest and rising leverage suggests the next move could be determined by whether momentum expands or reduces.

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