‘Altcoin season definitely possible’ – Why analysts eye an upcoming rally

While the global crypto market cap was trading at $2.6 trillion after a drop of 0.26% in the past 24 hours, the altcoin market cap was at $182.83 billion at press time.

Amidst such dips and rises, analysts in the crypto community are calling for an altcoin season. Michaël van de Poppe, CIO & Founder of MN Fund, sees that the market sentiment is improving, and hence, he believes that the altcoin season is “definitely possible.”

Poppe underlined that there won’t be a “full-blown altcoin run,” but many altcoins that have been in a prolonged bear market for about 18 months now will witness a profitable rally in the short term. 

Aligned view across the crypto community

Echoing similar sentiments, another analyst said that many investors are focusing only on Bitcoin [BTC] market dynamics. Hence, in his X post, the analyst shed light on the TOTAL2 (total crypto market cap minus Bitcoin) and noted, 

Using the chart, the analyst also drew comparisons with the past altcoin seasons, which took place in 2016/2017 and 2020/2021.

The analyst believes that current price action is a lookalike of the accumulation phase before previous altseasons. Therefore, if the pattern repeats, a large altcoin rally could happen in 2026/27.

In fact, in a separate post, the same analyst used Tether [USDT] dominance (USDT.D) to highlight that the “next altcoin rally is just around the corner.”

He observed that the Tether dominance has been rejected at resistance, indicating that the money may soon be diverted from stablecoins into altcoins. 

The Altcoin Season Index is not strong yet

While there is so much optimism in the market, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index was not ringing with similar sentiments. At the time of writing, the altcoin season index was at 39, which is 11 index points less than the level needed to confirm an upcoming altcoin season.

In fact, the altcoin season index was only able to reach the above 50 level for a brief period in March, as evidenced by the 90-day chart. 

Other on-chain metrics paint a concerning picture

Similarly, the CEX Volume Ratio for Non-BTC vs. BTC (Excluding Stablecoins) by CryptoQuant also indicates that the altcoin season is uncertain.

Though the volume ratio is surging, the absence of Green Buy Walls hints at a short-term altcoin bull run.

Additionally, the Percentage of Altcoins near their All-Time Lows (ATL) chart by CryptoQuant suggests that nearly 30% of the entire altcoin market is currently hovering near its all-time lows.

Until the pink area starts shrinking, altcoin season remains a distant dream.  However, AMBCrypto previously noted that, if it occurs, the upcoming altcoin season could be broader than past cycles.

Final Summary

• Analysts are predicting an upcoming altseason, drawing comparisons from the previous cycles.
• The altcoin index and on-chain metrics are painting an opposite picture, suggesting that altseason is far from reality.