Pre-Market Update: What the US-Iran Strikes Mean for Stock Futures and the Jobs Report Today

TLDR

• S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures all rose Friday morning despite US-Iran military clashes near the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran launched missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks on US warships; the US struck back at Iranian military sites
• President Trump called the attacks a “trifle” and confirmed the ceasefire remains in place, calming markets
• Oil prices rose modestly, with Brent crude up 1.1% and WTI up 0.7%, suggesting limited market fear
• All eyes are on April’s nonfarm payrolls report, with economists forecasting 65,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.3%

Wall Street shrugged off a military exchange between the US and Iran on Friday, with stock futures pointing higher as traders looked ahead to a key jobs report.

Futures linked to the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.7%. Dow futures added 0.3%, equivalent to around 137 points. All three major indexes had fallen on Thursday, with the Dow briefly crossing 50,000 but failing to close above that level for a second straight day.

Iran launched missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. US Central Command described the strikes as “unprovoked” and said it did not seek escalation.

The US responded by striking Iranian military sites linked to the attacks. President Trump posted on Truth Social that US destroyers were unharmed and described the action as limited.

Trump also called Iran’s attacks a “trifle” and said the ceasefire between the two countries remains intact. That statement appeared to calm investor nerves.

Markets Brush Off Middle East Tensions

Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen noted the clear escalation but said markets were still not pricing in a worst-case scenario.

Oil prices moved higher but stayed contained. Brent crude rose 1.1% to $101.15 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate gained 0.7% to $95.50 a barrel.

The restrained move in oil prices suggests traders do not expect the conflict to disrupt energy supplies in a major way.

The dollar edged up 0.1% against a basket of peers. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped one basis point to 4.38%.

April Jobs Report in Focus

Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report is now the main event for markets. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast 65,000 jobs were added last month.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. That would point to a labor market holding up despite ongoing geopolitical strain.

Earnings reports are also due Friday from Toyota Motor, Sony, and Brookfield Asset Management.

Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 following the news of the US-Iran strikes, according to market data from earlier in the session.

Treasury yields edged lower earlier in the morning on hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all on course for a positive close to the week if premarket gains hold through the session.

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