Bitcoin Outperforms Gold by 36% Since U.S.-Iran War Began

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price has outperformed gold price by 36% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war.
• There’s sizable liquidity sitting above in the $83,000–$85,000 range, but below, between $77,000 and $80,500, the liquidation clusters are much larger.
• BTC has been consolidating, but it is definitely not in bottom territory yet, and the panic selling has cooled off.

As the stock market rebounds strongly, Bitcoin (BTC) price is following, unlike gold. However, this data is on a scale that starts from when the U.S.-Iran war began up to date. Tensions across both parties of the divide are cooling as ceasefire talks continue.

As Bitcoin outpaces gold, does it mean that BTC is a better asset at a time of uncertainty? Or are they just differences between their cycles?

Bitcoin Price Outperforms Gold Since the Start of the US-Iran War

Bitcoin continues to trend higher from a 50% retracement that followed a high of $126,000 last year. Bitcoin price has outperformed real gold by 36% since the U.S.-Iran war started. The war started on February 28th.

To be specific, Bitcoin has gained about 23% during this period while gold has lost 13% of its market cap. Gold started falling right away at the onset, while BTC did the opposite. However, BTC has fully retraced twice from gains of over 12% during this period.

On the other hand, gold only retraced slightly after crashing steeply to around 17%. Bulls reduced the losses to around 8%, but bears fought back and forced a decline to current levels.

This data suggests that BTC may be more resilient during periods of uncertainty like geopolitical disruptions and economic difficulties.

If that is not the case, then gold may be in a deep correction. The war started when gold was trading around its new highs of about $5,600. Gold was trading around $4,600, indicating it had lost more than $1,000 in valuation per ounce.

Analyzing Bitcoin Price With Regard to Liquidation Levels

The real driver of Bitcoin price over this week was the short squeezes as the crypto reached for previous key levels. On Monday, BTC rallied to $80.5K and erased about $510 million from the market. On Tuesday, it climbed further to $81.6K and wiped another $387 million.

In the past 24 hours, traders also liquidated over $635 million in short orders as the price hit $82.7K. Thereafter, BTC price dumped slightly below $80K, closing more than 33K accounts. In short, there were more than $1.53 billion in liquidations over the course of three days.

The bid disappeared during the second resistance held. From these numbers, it indicates leverage-chasing strength was the most predictable flush of every cycle.

There were huge clusters of liquidity between the $83,000 and $85,000 price range. However, the clusters between $77,000 and $80,000 were denser. These liquidity levels suggest that BTC was more likely to drop to $77K before surging to $85K.

BTC Consolidates As Panic Selling Cools Off

An analysis of supply held in profit/loss by cohort showed that consolidation was ongoing. As per Checkonchain, the consolidation was ongoing but not the cycle’s bottom.

This conclusion is because the bottom is historically defined by negative profitability. However, these cohorts were experiencing high unrealized gains.

Notably, the panic selling seen through the month of March had cooled off significantly. This indicated that the Bitcoin price was in a recovery phase. However, more sideways movement was more likely before continuation.

The on-chain data about accumulation, alongside massive liquidations of shorts, was behind these BTC gains.

In summary, Bitcoin price was pulling more gains than gold during periods of uncertainty. However, that did mean BTC investment was better than that of gold. Only time will tell.

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