On-Chain Data Reveals Bitcoin Miners Are Not Yet Convinced the Market Has Reached Its Bottom

TLDR:

• Binance Pool miner reserves are declining, showing operational selling pressure remains active in the market.
• The MPI staying negative confirms miners are selling below historical averages, reducing sharp dump risks.
• A Puell Multiple below 1.0 shows miner revenues remain historically weak, reflecting ongoing financial stress.
• Combined on-chain data suggests Bitcoin faces continued sideways consolidation before any confirmed bottom forms.

Bitcoin miners are showing a cautious but measured stance toward current market conditions. On-chain data reveals that miners are neither panic-selling nor aggressively accumulating.

Instead, they appear to be in a wait-and-see phase. Three key metrics — Binance Pool Miner Reserve, the Miner Position Index (MPI), and the Puell Multiple — paint a consistent picture.

Together, they suggest that Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a true market bottom, and that sideways price action may continue for some time.

Binance Pool Reserves and What Miner Behavior Is Telling the Market

The decline in Binance Pool Miner Reserve data is one of the more telling signals right now. Miners within Binance Pool are continuing to reduce their holdings.

Because Binance Pool controls a significant portion of global hash rate, its actions tend to reflect broader miner psychology before the wider market responds.

Falling reserves typically mean that operational selling is still ongoing. However, this selling does not appear to be driven by fear or urgency. According to CryptoQuant analyst @PelinayPA, “the decline in reserves still implies BTC supply entering the market. However, the weak MPI suggests these sales are not large enough to trigger a collapse.”

This distinction matters. Supply entering the market does not automatically translate into a sharp price decline. The pace and volume of that supply is what determines market impact. In this case, the data points to controlled, need-based selling rather than a broader miner capitulation.

As a result, the current selling pressure is best understood as an ongoing but modest headwind. It limits the likelihood of a strong upward breakout while also reducing the risk of a sudden price collapse.

Puell Multiple and MPI Reflect Continued Miner Stress

The Miner Position Index remaining in negative territory reinforces this cautious reading. Negative MPI values indicate that miners are selling less than their historical average — not more.

This rules out panic selling as a near-term risk. However, it also reflects that miners are not yet confident enough to hold aggressively.

The Puell Multiple adds another layer to this analysis. It is currently sitting below the 1.0 threshold, which means miner revenues remain historically weak.

Miners are still under financial pressure, and that pressure is prompting the modest selling activity seen in the reserve data.

Technically speaking, a Puell Multiple below 1.0 has historically aligned with periods near cycle bottoms. However, the absence of an aggressive accumulation signal suggests that miners do not yet see the conditions as definitively bottomed. They are not moving to build positions, which typically happens once miners believe the worst is behind them.

This combination of metrics points to a market that is stabilizing rather than recovering. The analyst notes that this type of behavior — cautious holding with moderate selling — is commonly observed near bottom formations.

That said, miners themselves do not appear to be acting on any conviction that a bottom has already been confirmed.

The broader takeaway for investors is straightforward. Short-term price pressure has not fully cleared. Bitcoin appears likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, with neither a major breakdown nor a strong rally supported by the current miner data.

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