Tesla (TSLA) Stock Can’t Catch a Break as SpaceX Takes the Spotlight

TLDR

• Tesla stock is down ~1.2% this week, trading around $417, heading for a second straight weekly loss
• China FSD approval has not arrived, removing a key near-term catalyst
• SpaceX’s public IPO filing mentions Tesla nearly 90 times, pulling investor attention away
• Insiders sold over 83,000 Tesla shares worth ~$32.2 million in the past 90 days
• Q1 EPS beat estimates at $0.41, but revenue of $22.39B missed the $22.96B consensus

Tesla (TSLA) is on track for its second consecutive weekly loss, with the stock down roughly 1.2% this week after a 1.4% drop last week. As of Friday premarket, TSLA was trading around $417.30.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The stock has been largely flat lately. It’s down 7% year-to-date but still up 23% over the past 12 months. The 52-week range sits between $273.21 and $498.83.

Tesla got a lift in early May on expectations that its AI-trained Full Self-Driving software would get the green light in China. That approval hasn’t come through yet, and the stock has drifted lower since.

Tesla currently has about 1.3 million U.S. customers paying $99 a month for FSD. China approval would open a major new market for that recurring revenue stream.

SpaceX IPO Steals the Show

SpaceX went public with its IPO registration on Wednesday, and Tesla investors took notice. The filing mentions Tesla nearly 90 times, and the two companies are more intertwined than many realized.

The companies share a board director, are jointly developing an AI digital assistant, and are building a “Terafab” chip facility with Intel. Tesla has also assisted SpaceX with purchasing and advertising on X.

Tesla holds 19 million SpaceX shares, a position that came through its earlier investment in xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February. The prospectus notes plans to “explore other areas of strategic collaboration with Tesla in the future.”

Elon Musk holds 6.4 billion SpaceX shares. Recent private-market trades have valued SpaceX at around $130 per share, putting that stake near $800 billion. His Tesla holdings — over 700 million shares including vested options — are worth around $300 billion by comparison.

Insider Selling and Earnings

On the earnings front, Tesla posted Q1 EPS of $0.41, beating the $0.39 consensus by two cents. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year over year, but short of the $22.96 billion analysts expected.

Insider activity has leaned negative. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares on May 13 at $450, netting $1.35 million. The sale was tied to tax obligations from equity award vesting. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares on April 30 at $378.11, totaling nearly $10 million.

Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold 83,213 shares worth about $32.2 million in total.

Wall Street is split on the stock. Of 41 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 19 rate it a Buy, 17 a Hold, and five a Sell. The average price target is $395.20 — below where the stock currently trades.

Tesla also flagged a recall of 14,575 Model Y SUVs in the U.S. over a missing weight certification label. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 383, with a market cap of $1.57 trillion.

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