MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 06: Shota Imanaga #18 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after giving up a home run to William Contreras #24 of the Milwaukee Brewers during game two of the National League Division Series at American Family Field on October 06, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
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Credit agent Yoshinori Hasegawa and the business side of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars for their creativity in putting together the deal that brought pitcher Shota Imanaga to the United States.
While Imanaga was widely known to have signed a four-year, $53 million deal with the Cubs, paying a $9.825 million posting fee to the Japan Central League’s BayStars, the contract includes a series of twists that complicate both his immediate and long-term future in Chicago.
The Cubs face a decision on a club option that will set the tone for the scale of their off-season pitching search.
It would seem like an easy call to hang onto Imanaga given the fragile nature of a rotation that includes Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton and Javier Assad (with lefty Justin Steele an unknown after an elbow reconstruction surgery in April). But the contract drafted by Octagon agency’s Hasegawa makes the cost of the team’s control $80 million over five seasons, not $53 million over four.
That’s because only the first two seasons of the deal were truly guaranteed. The Cubs now encounter a club option that, if they exercise it, will pay Imanaga $20 million in 2026, $20 million in ’27 and $17 million in ’28.
This would be an easy decision if the 32-year-old lefty was not coming off a down season. After going 15-3 and finishing fifth in the Cy Young in ’24 — triggering escalators in his contract — he missed seven weeks with a hamstring strain and went 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 13 regular-season starts after the All-Star break.
Imanaga wasn’t better in the post-season. He allowed three home runs in 6 2/3 innings over two outings, compiling an 8.10 earned run average in that small sample.
Imanaga’s Statcast metrics took a tumble as well. His velocity was down almost one mile per hour — to 90.8 from 91.7 — and both his hard-hit rate (43.5 percent) and average exit velocity (90.7) increased year over year. He threw an improved sweeper more often as his split-finger fastball was less effective than in ’24.
This is the trend that Jed Hoyer and his lieutenants in the Cubs’ front office will contemplate as they weigh the three-year, $57 million option.
If the Cubs decline the option, Imanaga could still in Chicago through a one-year, $15 million option that is triggered by the team’s decision. That would effectively be a two-year, $30 million option for Imanaga because the deal also includes a $15 million player option in ’27.
If Imanaga opts for the player option in ’26, the Cubs have a two-year, $42 million option that covers ’27 and ’28 ($24 million in ’27, $18 million in ’28). Oh, and add $250,000 per year onto all of those numbers through the Cy Young escalator clause.
The website Cot’s Contracts says these decisions impact even the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. The agreement gives the BayStars future payments worth 15 percent of all exercised options and escalators. That would be $8.55 million if the Cubs exercise the three-year option (2026-28), bringing that total expenditure to $65.55 million.
This decision isn’t as simple as it might seem.
The Cubs will have money to spend this off-season. But it’s unclear if they want to tie up $45-50 million by keeping Imanaga and adding one of the top free agents (Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Lucas Giolito).
They could chose to move on from Imanaga and become extremely aggressive pursuing pitching through free agency and trades. After all, who wouldn’t want the bonus provided by the up-the-middle defense combination of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong?
Hanging on to Imanaga is the simplest play for Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins but it’s not their only option.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/philrogers/2025/10/20/complicated-shota-imanaga-decision-is-cubs-next-piece-of-business/
