Bitcoin (BTC) at Decision Point: Surge to $123K or Fall to $94K?

Bitcoin is trading near a key technical level, with analysts divided on whether the current structure is part of a broader correction or the early stage of a new rally. The asset recently rebounded from $111,000 but was stopped before it neared the resistance between $117,000 and $119,000, a zone many see as the next critical test.

The next move could define whether Bitcoin completes its ongoing corrective phase or starts a more sustained upward trend.

Macro Correction or Impulsive Breakout?

Analyst CasiTrades suggests Bitcoin is still inside a macro ABC correction, a pattern often observed in Elliott Wave Theory. In her view, the A wave appears completed, and the market is in a B wave recovery. The substructure of the B wave points toward targets between $117,100 and $119,500.

A move above $123,500, the 1.618 extension level, would challenge this view and suggest the start of a new impulsive rally. If Bitcoin is rejected at the current resistance, the next move may be a C-wave decline, with targets between $97,000 and $94,000.

Support Holding, But Fed and Volatility Ahead

Ted Pillows noted that BTC recently bounced from $113,500, adding that “as long as Bitcoin holds this, we are going higher.” He warned, however, that if this level fails, a correction toward $110,000 could follow.

As CryptoPotato reported, market watchers are also focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may bring added volatility. Historical data shows November has often brought major moves for Bitcoin, with several past bull and bear market tops and bottoms forming in the final two months of the year, according to Daan Crypto Trades.

In addition, recent session data shows EU and APAC trading hours contributing the most to Bitcoin’s cumulative returns since October 23. EU sessions lead above +5%, with APAC close behind. US sessions remain flat to slightly negative.

Ted added,

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