Dogecoin is experiencing considerable pressure, with November being a particularly challenging month for the popular meme cryptocurrency. The token is currently trading near $0.18, having dropped 27% from its monthly high, although it briefly recovered by 1.2%. The market information suggests a fundamental shift in the behavior of holders, which is likely to drive prices downward.
Long-Term Wallets Reverse Course
The on-chain indicators suggest a significant shift in the sentiment of experienced DOGE holders. The Hodler Net Position Change indicator registered a significant shift on October 31, as it changed its course of action by recording a negative figure of an 8.2 million DOGE inflow and a 22 million DOGE outflow in one day. This 36% behavioral turnaround is the largest in recent weeks, as depicted by Glassnode.
Source: Glassnode
These long-term wallets have traditionally been stable when the market is unstable. Their selling behavior currently indicates a lack of confidence in short-term price movements. The fact that liquidating positions is initiated by holders who have shown patience before is usually an indicator of worsening market conditions. The ongoing exudations cause more selling pressure, which might be unable to be accommodated by current support levels.
Cost basis analysis suggests that the range between $0.177 and $0.179 is the main line of defense that DOGE has. The 3.78 billion tokens that last changed hands within this zone constitute the strongest accumulation area of tokens in the short term. This level has resisted pullbacks since the beginning of October.
Source: Glassnode
This buffer is, however, undermined by the rising mass of tokens being transferred by long-term holders. The support may break down in case the selling becomes more intense. Below $0.17, there is little buying interest until a range of $ 0.14, which creates a void in buying power that may trigger an accelerating downward trend.
Death Cross Formation Confirms Bearish Structure
Technical signals indicate a greater weight on the downside. The current downtrend was started by the 50-day exponential moving average crossing the 200-day EMA towards the end of October. The 100-day EMA is approaching a bearish crossover with the 200-day EMA, marking a second death cross that was previously formed.
Source: TradingView
This trend typically leads to prolonged downturns and represents long-term vulnerability across various periods. The consecutive death crosses formed enhance the argument of further selling pressure. The bearish technical structure is likely to persist unless it is accompanied by significant buying volume.
DOGE is already resisting at the near-term levels of $0.20 and $0.21. The token has not been able to break above $0.21 since mid-October, and significant demand would be required. The downside risk is high until buyers exert control that is above these levels.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12053/dogecoin-faces-critical-test-as-long-term-holders-exit-and-technical-signals-turn-bearish
