Analyst Doubts Strategy Will Need To Sell Some Of Its Bitcoin Holdings To Pay Off Its Debts

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, will likely not have to sell off some of its reserves during the next market downturn, according to analyst Willy Woo.

“MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,” the analyst said in an X post earlier today. 

Strategy Safe From Liquidation In The Next Bear Market

Strategy started accumulating Bitcoin back in 2020, and has consistently purchased BTC over the years. Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows Strategy now holds 641,205 BTC on its balance sheet. 

Top corporate BTC holders (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)

The company’s reserve is far greater than that of the next-biggest BTC treasury firm, MARA Holdings, which has 53,250 coins on its balance sheet. 

To purchase its Bitcoin, Strategy has turned to debt financing to raise capital. Currently, most of the company’s debt is convertible senior notes. The company is set to settle its conversions as they fall due by paying either cash, common stock, or a combination of both.

With regards to the Sept. 15 2027 holder put right date, Strategy will have around $1.1 billion in debt due. 

In order to not have to sell Bitcoin to repay that debt, Strategy’s stock must be trading above $183.19, according to Woo. This share  price corresponds with a Bitcoin price of approximately $91,502, assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1, the analyst said.

Another analyst with the X user name “The Bitcoin Therapist,” said in the comments for Woo’s post that there will need to be “one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy.”

“Bitcoin would have to perform horribly,” the analyst added.  

Strategy’s Stock Price Continues Decline As Bitcoin Tumbles 

Woo’s post comes as Strategy’s shares extend their medium-term downtrend. In the past 24 hours, the company’s stock (MSTR) plummeted over 6%, data from Google Finance shows. 

MSTR price (Source: Google Finance)

The selling activity persisted during the after-hour trading session, pushing MSTR a fraction of a percentage lower during this period. 

Zooming out to the longer-term time frames shows that MSTR has plummeted more than 13% in the past week. Strategy’s stock has also plunged over 31% in the past month and more than 36% in the past six months.

The recent drop in share price has seen Strategy’s mNAV fall over 5% as well. As a result, the metric stands at 1.31.

The performance seen by Strategy’s share price over recent months can also be observed with other digital asset treasury (DAT) firms’ respective stock prices. Companies such as Japan-based Metaplanet and leading Ethereum treasury firm BitMine have seen similar performances. 

Adding to those companies’ woes is the recent downturn in the crypto market. On Oct. 10, the market underwent a flash crash which resulted in a record $19 billion getting liquidated from trades. This was after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on imported Chinese goods. 

The crypto market has since tried to recover from that steep correction, but was hit with another selloff in the last 24 hours. During this period, leading crypto BTC dropped below $100K to as low as $98,962.06. It has since recovered slightly to trade at $101,803.51 as of 12:55 a.m. EST, according to CoinMarketCap. Despite the recovery, BTC is still down 4% in the past 24 hours. 

Strategy Keeps Adding To Bitcoin Stockpile

Even amid the share price decline, falling mNAV, and the market slump, Strategy continues to add to its Bitcoin reserves. 

The company announced its most recent purchase at the start of the week, and said that it bought 397 BTC for approximately $45.6 million at an average purchase price of around $114,771 per Bitcoin.

According to the company’s founder Michael Saylor, Strategy has achieved a BTC yield of 26.1% year-to-date (YTD). The company’s total holdings were also acquired for approximately $47.49 billion at an average buy price of $74,057, Saylor added. 

The company has also launched a new offering called “Stream” (STRE), which is a Euro-denominated Perpetual Preferred Stock offering. The offering is aimed at European and global institutional investors, and the company said it will use the proceeds from this offering for corporate purposes, which includes purchasing more Bitcoin.