TLDR

• Galaxy cut its 2025 Bitcoin price target from $185,000 to $120,000 due to changing market conditions and lower volatility from institutional investors
• Bitcoin dropped more than 20% from its record high above $126,000, falling below $100,000 for the first time in four months
• A flash crash on October 10 triggered $20 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, the largest in crypto history
• Whales dumped 400,000 Bitcoin onto the market in October, putting pressure on prices
• Bitcoin recovered to around $103,744 as traders bought discounted prices, though economic uncertainty continues

Investment firm Galaxy reduced its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000 from $185,000. The company cited several factors affecting the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin has entered what Galaxy calls the “maturity era.” This new phase features institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, shared the updated outlook on Wednesday. He pointed to changing liquidity patterns as a key reason for the revision.

Whales moved 400,000 Bitcoin onto exchanges in October. This large volume of selling created downward pressure on prices.

Investors also rotated money into other assets. Gold, AI investments, and stablecoins attracted capital that might have otherwise gone to Bitcoin.

The flash crash on October 10 caused major damage to the bull trend. This event triggered about $20 billion in liquidations within 24 hours.

This liquidation event marked the largest in crypto history. Leveraged positions were wiped out as prices fell rapidly.

Market Panic and Price Recovery

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in four months this week. The cryptocurrency dropped from its record high above $126,000.

Crypto markets saw $1.3 billion in liquidations on Tuesday. This wave of forced selling pushed Bitcoin prices down further.

The price decline exceeded 20% from the all-time high. Some analysts consider a 20% drop as bear market territory.

Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday. This technical level typically acts as dynamic support.

Trader Lourenço VS noted that corrections between 20-25% are normal for this cycle. The current 21% correction falls within typical parameters.

Institutional Impact on Volatility

Galaxy believes Bitcoin can maintain support at $100,000. If this level holds, the bull market structure may remain intact.

Exchange-traded funds and financial institutions now drive passive investment flows. These flows have dampened Bitcoin’s price volatility.

Thorn remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. However, he acknowledges that traditional cyclical market dynamics have been disrupted.

Bitcoin recovered to $103,744 on Thursday. Traders bought the cryptocurrency at discounted prices.

Economic uncertainty limited the strength of the rebound. Cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts also weighed on the recovery.

World Economic Forum President Borge Brende warned of a potential crypto bubble on Wednesday. He spoke to reporters in Brazil about valuation concerns.

Bitcoin lost about 5% in October. This broke a seven-year streak of gains during that month.

Robinhood reported crypto trading revenue of $268 million for the third quarter. This represented a 300% increase compared to the previous year.

Broader crypto markets followed Bitcoin’s recovery on Thursday. Ether rose 3.7% to $3,450, while XRP gained 5.1% to $2.36.

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