- Kalshi odds on SCOTUS upholding Trump’s emergency tariffs fell to about 28%, while Polymarket slid to 25% after the Nov. 5 hearing
- Justices in both blocs questioned whether the 1977 IEEPA even lets a president create tariffs, a power traditionally held by Congress
- A loss for Trump would ease trade-war fears and could rotate capital back to stocks, softening crypto’s recent “tariff hedge” bid
Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly lowering the odds that the Supreme Court of the US, SCOTUS, will rule in favor of Trump’s sweeping tariff powers. Kalshi’s odds for a yes ruling dropped to 28%, while Polymarket’s fell to 25%.
The total amount of money traded on both platforms surpassed $1.3 million, showing that the betting activity on these sites can give an early signal of how people feel about upcoming political and court decisions.
This change in the case follows a hearing on November 5, where the Supreme Court justices seemed highly doubtful. They questioned whether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) actually allows a president to create tariffs.
Chief Justice John Roberts asked if the measure was essentially a tax on Americans, pointing out that the power to tax has always belonged to Congress, not the president.
If the court limits the president’s power to set tariffs, it could calm down global businesses and ease worries about rising prices and trade wars. This generally makes investors more willing to take risks.
Related: China Extends 24% Tariff Suspension For A Year, Crypto Gets A Macro Tailwind
It’s important to point out that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often react to big economic and policy changes. When the tariffs were first announced, fear of inflation made Bitcoin more attractive as a protection. If those tariffs are reversed, money might flow back into the stock market instead, making crypto less appealing as a safety net.
The ruling’s outcome could also trigger questions about refunds of previously collected tariffs, which some (such as Glenmede vice president Michael Reynolds) say might equate to a stimulus injection.
Markets See A Pro-Risk Outcome If Trump Loses
In the meantime, after going above $104,000, Bitcoin once again dipped under $103,000, as investors cashed in their gains and general economic concerns dampened market sentiment.
Analysts note October’s losses broke a seven-year streak of gains, with Bitcoin and crypto overall losing nearly $500 billion in market value after a flash-crash in early October.
Recently, the whole crypto industry has been struggling. Besides Bitcoin, many altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and others, suffered losses, ranging between 5% to 15% in the last 7 days.
Related: ‘Extreme Fear’ Grips Crypto Market as Bitcoin Whales Sell $600 Million
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Source: https://coinedition.com/prediction-markets-now-see-supreme-court-curbing-trumps-tariff-powers/
