Bitcoin price prediction: Will miner selling cap Bitcoin’s recovery?

After slipping to just above the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin price is drifting between $100K and $108K, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours.

The big question for traders: will persistent miner selling put a ceiling on the next move higher?

Current market scenario

On-chain metrics following the post-halving event indicate a sharp rise in miner selling, as coins move to exchanges for profit-taking in a higher-cost environment. Such distribution waves have historically applied short-term pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), capping immediate gains. ETF inflows have cooled after September’s record highs, lowering spot demand. 

From a macro perspective, rate cuts boost liquidity, but investor caution persists ahead of Q4 CPI data. 

Technically, Bitcoin price remains above the 100-day SMA, with support at $103K–$104K and resistance near $108K.

Upside outlook

From a Bitcoin forecast perspective, sustained price action above $108K could attract renewed buying and push the market toward $110K. If miner selling stabilizes and ETF inflows resume, Bitcoin could retest its post-halving highs. 

Additionally, the ongoing macro easing cycle — paired with Bitcoin’s rising correlation with gold — continues to reinforce its “digital store-of-value” narrative. Should this theme strengthen, it could help re-ignite institutional interest and push the market higher.

Downside risks

Downside risks are rising. If miner selling ramps up, Bitcoin price could slip below $103K–$104K and even test the $100K mark. 

Sluggish ETF inflows and low trading volumes suggest the market might be in a profit-taking phase. 

Add in higher bond yields or tighter monetary policy, and we could see a risk-off mood that drags prices sideways or even down before any real recovery.

Bitcoin price prediction based on current levels

The near-term bitcoin price prediction centers on a $100K–$108K trading range:

• A break past $108K could kickstart a rally toward $110K, bringing some renewed excitement into the market.
• But if Bitcoin stumbles around $108K, the climb to $110K could stall, and we might see some sideways movement or a small dip.

Overall, the Bitcoin outlook is still neutral-to-bearish. While macro conditions provide some support, high miner selling and weak ETF demand are likely capping near-term gains.