Bitcoin Must Reclaim Highs Before Altcoins Rally, Says Wintermute

TLDR:

• Bitcoin needs to near all-time highs before altcoins rally, Wintermute says.
• Crypto sentiment has improved following U.S. fiscal and policy headlines.
• The GMCI-30 index gained 0.7%, led by DePIN and L2s.
• Altcoin breadth remains weak despite a better macro environment.

Crypto markets are regaining stability after weeks of volatility. According to Wintermute’s latest market update, Bitcoin has shown resilience near $105,000 as traders reenter selective risk positions. 

The report notes that positioning has reset following October’s selloff, creating a stronger base for recovery. However, Bitcoin must move closer to its all-time high before altcoins can gain sustained traction.

Market Positions Reset as Sentiment Turns Positive

Wintermute’s analysis shows a noticeable change in tone across digital assets. The firm said broader sentiment improved after U.S. political and macroeconomic developments, including renewed fiscal optimism tied to Trump’s proposed $2,000 “stimulus” via tariff rebates. 

Though later reframed as a tax break, the announcement temporarily revived risk appetite among traders.

Softer macro data and optimism about ending the U.S. government shutdown also encouraged selective risk-taking. Combined with easing monetary policy and lower short-term rates, these developments created space for investors to reenter the crypto market cautiously.

Despite that, Wintermute noted that digital assets still trail other risk classes such as equities and credit. While tone improved, investor flows remain limited, suggesting that confidence has not yet translated into sustained buying pressure.

Market observers also noted that Bitcoin’s stability around $105,000–$107,000 has helped restore calm after the October selloff. Ethereum’s steady range near $3,700 further supports the view that positioning has normalized, though not enough to spark broad participation.

Bitcoin Dominance Holds as Altcoin Rally Stalls

Altcoins rebounded earlier in the week, but gains were narrow and uneven. The GMCI-30 index climbed 0.7% from Monday to Monday, led by DePIN (+22%), L2s (+13%), and AI (+9.6%) tokens. Wintermute said most of these gains were driven by weekend momentum rather than structural capital inflows.

Market breadth remains thin, with a few tokens like Filecoin (FIL) and Arweave (AR) accounting for much of the week’s performance. Narrative-driven trades, such as last week’s surge in FET and ICP, quickly faded as BTC failed to confirm a clear upward trend.

Historically, altcoins perform best when Bitcoin trades within 10–20% of its all-time high. With Bitcoin about 16% below its peak, Wintermute estimates a 54% chance of BTC outperforming altcoins at current levels, rising to 58% if it dips near $100,000.

Still, certain blue-chip tokens such as HYPE, ENA, and UNI continue to show relative strength. According to Wintermute, these assets benefit from clearer U.S. regulatory expectations and renewed discussions about domestic market reopening. 

Until Bitcoin regains leadership, however, altcoin markets will likely remain rotational and fragile.

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