Crypto fear and greed index returns to 2022 lows as prices tumble

Crypto fear and greed index dropped back to 2022 lows as Bitcoin’s price tumbled and liquidation pressure increased across major assets.

On Nov. 17, Bitcoin touched $93,000 while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9, its lowest reading since July 2022. The move came alongside $565 million in crypto liquidations within 24 hours, showing how fast leveraged positions unwound. As of this writing, the reading has improved to 14, still depicting extreme fear.

Bitcoin (BTC) last traded near $95,730.75, down 0.86% for the day. Ethereum (ETH) slipped 0.84% to $3,209.75. The downturn intensified during Asian market hours, following a sharp decline in major U.S. stock indices on Friday, where key benchmarks fell more than 1.6%.

Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut fell from above 60% last week to roughly 43%, adding to overall caution in risk assets.

Short-term holders lead the selling

CryptoQuant’s research pointed to short-term holders as the main source of selling during Bitcoin’s fall from its $126,000 peak. Their Spent Output Profit Ratio dropped below 1 several times, showing they were selling at a loss and adding momentum to the correction.

On-chain age-band data showed coins younger than three months made up most of the selling volume. Long-term holders increased their selling since September, but the pattern stayed consistent with normal mid-cycle profit-taking rather than the kind of heavy distribution that appears near cycle peaks.

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap continued rising despite the price drop, which means new capital kept entering the market. ETF holder data showed the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF buyers stood at $86,680, with Bitcoin trading around 9% above that level.

CryptoQuant noted that even though long-term holders sold more over recent months, the market reacted mainly to short-term leveraged activity. Fast selling and forced liquidations from short-term traders created the steepest part of the decline.

Bitcoin ETFs record a third week of outflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.11 billion in net outflows from Nov. 10 to 14. This was the third week in a row that institutions withdrew capital.

BlackRock’s IBIT posted the largest weekly outflow at $532.41 million. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust followed with nearly $290 million leaving the fund. The combined net asset value of all spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $125.34 billion, equal to 6.67% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich commented that ETF withdrawals do not weaken Bitcoin treasury companies. In his view, ETFs simply mirror investor flows and cannot expand their holdings without new inflows.

The total crypto market cap fell to $3.31 trillion, down 0.9%, and has shed $1.1 trillion over the past 41 days.

Technical view: testing key 2025 levels

Bitcoin returned to its yearly opening range around $94,000 to $95,000. Analysts say this zone may act as support after a 27% pullback from the $128,000 highs.

Trader Plan C described Bitcoin as still trading inside a broad range between $75,000 and $126,000. Analyst Max Crypto noted BTC recorded its first weekly close below the 50-week exponential moving average since late 2023. If the pattern continues through Nov. 24, some analysts believe the market may enter a deeper drawdown phase.

Today’s fear reading of 9 matches conditions from July 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $19,000 to $20,000 after the Terra/Luna collapse. The difference is scale: the same fear level now appears with Bitcoin at $94,930, roughly 4.7 times higher than the 2022 lows.

History shows that after reaching deep fear levels in mid-2022, Bitcoin stayed depressed for months before recovering.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe said a recovery depends on Bitcoin holding the $94,000 area and attempting to retest $100,000 soon. If that happens, he expects a large amount of short-side liquidity to unwind.