Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Wednesday’s Earnings Could Make or Break the AI Trade

TLDR

• Nvidia reports Q3 earnings Wednesday after market cap briefly topped $5 trillion last month, with analysts expecting $54.8 billion in revenue.
• Options data suggests a potential $300-320 billion swing in market value, the largest post-earnings move ever for the chipmaker.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raised revenue estimates to $55 billion for Q3 and $63.1 billion for Q4, calling Blackwell the “AI chip of choice.”
• Recent high-profile exits include Peter Thiel’s fund selling its entire $100 million stake and SoftBank dumping $5.8 billion worth of shares.
• Nvidia shares dropped nearly 3% Tuesday and are down 10.5% in November as investors weigh AI bubble concerns against strong demand signals.

Nvidia reports its third quarter earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. The announcement comes at a critical moment for the AI trade.

The chipmaker’s market cap briefly crossed $5 trillion last month. Since then, shares have pulled back about 12% from their all-time high.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Wall Street expects revenue of $54.8 billion, representing 56% year-over-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share are projected at $1.25, up roughly 50% from last year.

The stakes are unusually high for this report. Options data from analytics firm ORATS points to a potential one-day market value swing between $300 billion and $320 billion. That would mark the largest post-earnings move in Nvidia’s history.

The stock has dropped 10.5% so far in November. Shares fell nearly 3% on Tuesday alone as investors grapple with questions about AI valuations and spending sustainability.

High-Profile Exits Raise Eyebrows

Recent selling by major investors has added to market jitters. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire stake in Nvidia, valued at roughly $100 million.

SoftBank Group unloaded all of its holdings as well. The Japanese conglomerate’s position was worth $5.8 billion. The company is redirecting funds toward its own AI investments.

Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management highlighted a tricky scenario facing the company. Strong guidance could heighten concerns about excessive AI spending. A modest raise might signal that growth is slowing faster than anticipated.

Morgan Stanley Sees Breakout Quarter Ahead

Not everyone shares the cautious outlook. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raised his revenue estimates ahead of the report.

Moore now expects $55 billion in Q3 revenue, up from his previous $54.4 billion forecast. He also increased his Q4 projection to $63.1 billion from $61.2 billion.

The analyst pointed to Blackwell as the “AI chip of choice” among customers. He noted that the next generation Vera Rubin chip is seeing “very strong” demand signals.

Morgan Stanley’s industry checks show “material acceleration” in spending plans. Consensus estimates for cloud capital expenditure in 2026 stand at $142 billion. All four major hyperscalers are planning substantial spending increases.

Moore maintained his Overweight rating on the stock with a $220 price target. That implies roughly 21% upside from current levels.

The broader analyst community remains bullish. Out of 39 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it a Buy. Only one rates it a Hold and one a Sell. The average price target sits at $243.09, suggesting 34% potential upside.

Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su provided additional context on the market opportunity during the company’s Financial Analyst Day. Su said the data center market could reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Moore emphasized that Nvidia’s product leadership appears intact. He expects continued investment in capacity as long as cloud customers maintain healthy pricing.

Additional growth drivers include neo-clouds, AI labs, and sovereign AI initiatives. Moore described the projected Q4 sequential revenue growth as potentially the highest in industry history.

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