Scope for AUD to test 0.6405 – UOB Group

The global crypto market cap rose 2% to $4.2 trillion on Thursday, lifted by Bitcoin’s steady climb toward $118,000 after the Fed delivered its first interest rate cut of the year. Gains were measured, however, as investors weighed the central bank’s cautious tone on future policy moves. Bitcoin last traded 1% higher at $117,426. Ether rose 2.8% to $4,609. XRP also gained, rising 2.9% to $3.10. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described Wednesday’s quarter-point reduction as a risk-management step, stressing that policymakers were in no hurry to speed up the easing cycle. His comments dampened expectations of more aggressive cuts, limiting enthusiasm across risk assets. Traders Anticipated Fed Rate Trim, Leaving Little Room for Surprise Rally The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-to-1 to lower the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The sole dissent came from newly appointed governor Stephen Miran, who pushed for a half-point cut. Traders were largely prepared for the move. Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool had assigned a 96% probability to a 25 basis point cut, making the decision widely anticipated. That advance positioning meant much of the potential boost was already priced in, creating what analysts described as a “buy the rumour, sell the news” environment. Fed Rate Decision Creates Conditions for Crypto, But Traders Still Hold Back Andrew Forson, president of DeFi Technologies, said lower borrowing costs would eventually steer more money toward digital assets. “A lower cost of capital indicates more capital flows into the digital assets space because the risk hurdle rate for money is lower,” he noted. He added that staking products and blockchain projects could become attractive alternatives to traditional bonds, offering both yield and appreciation. Despite the cut, crypto markets remained calm. Open interest in Bitcoin futures held steady and no major liquidation cascades followed the Fed’s decision. Analysts pointed to Powell’s language and upcoming economic data as the key factors for traders before building larger positions. Powell’s Caution Tempers Immediate Impact of Fed Rate Move on Crypto Markets History also suggests crypto rallies after rate cuts often take time. When the Fed eased in Dec. 2024, Bitcoin briefly surged 5% cent before consolidating, with sustained gains arriving only weeks later. This time, market watchers are bracing for a similar pattern. Powell’s insistence on caution, combined with uncertainty around inflation and growth, has kept short-term volatility muted even as sentiment for risk assets improves. BitMine’s Tom Lee this week predicted that Bitcoin and Ether could deliver “monster gains” in the next three months if the Fed continues on an easing path. His view echoes broader expectations that liquidity-sensitive assets will outperform once the cycle gathers pace. For now, the crypto sector has digested the Fed’s move with restraint. Traders remain focused on signals from the central bank’s October meeting to determine whether Wednesday’s step marks the beginning of a broader policy shift or just a one-off adjustment

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