Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Rebounds and Eyes $3K but Bearish Pressure Persists

Ethereum has seen a mild relief bounce over the past few days after finding support near $2,500. While the price action remains technically bearish overall, there has been a slight improvement in short-term structure. However, caution is still warranted as macro resistance levels loom overhead.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the Daily timeframe, it is evident that ETH is currently trading around $2,900 after bouncing off the $2,500 demand zone. This level held as strong support, triggering a short-term rally that has now brought the asset into a minor supply zone near $3,000. The RSI has also moved off oversold levels and is now sitting near 36, suggesting some cooling in bearish momentum.

Still, the price is well below the 200-day (Yellow) and 100-day (Blue) moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance. To shift the structure back to bullish, ETH needs to reclaim the $3,500 area and consolidate above it. Until then, upside moves are considered corrective. A failure here could result in another drop toward $2,500 or even the critical $2,100 low.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH has formed a bearish flag just below the $3,000 resistance. This pattern often signals potential downside upon breakdown. The price has been unable to break above the key supply zone at $3,000 and is now showing signs of stalling, with the RSI hovering near the 50 level.

If this flag breaks down, the immediate downside target is the $2,600–$2,500 demand area. On the flip side, a breakout above $3,000 with strong volume could invalidate the flag and open the door toward $3,500. However, given the confluence of resistance, buyers need to be cautious here and not chase longs into major zones.

Sentiment Analysis

Open Interest

Looking at the broader sentiment and futures data, open interest on Ethereum has dropped significantly over the past week, now sitting near $16.9B. This cooling OI, alongside lower funding rates, suggests a decline in speculative positioning, which is often a sign that the market is transitioning to a more neutral state after a wave of forced liquidations.

The drop in open interest also aligns with the recent price recovery, which was not heavily supported by leverage, typically a healthier type of bounce. However, the fact that OI has not picked back up yet indicates hesitation from market participants and a lack of conviction in this move.

Until both the open Interest and the price start climbing again, the bias remains cautious. Many traders are likely sidelined or de-risking ahead of key resistance.

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