Bitcoin spent weeks sliding lower, but the market now shows early signs that the downtrend is losing strength.
Price action, volume behaviour, momentum indicators and on-chain commentary all suggest the bears may be running out of steam, with traders closely watching the $93,800-$94,000 resistance region for confirmation of direction.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s downtrend is weakening, with price forming higher lows and highs following major sell-offs.
- Analysts including Crypto Rover and Ali Martinez see signs of capitulation and structural support forming beneath current levels.
- Low trading volume reflects cautious optimism, as buyers and sellers step back ahead of the Fed decision.
- A rate cut may fuel a rally toward $98,000–$100,000, while a hawkish outcome could push Bitcoin back toward $85,000 or even $80,000.
Over recent sessions, Bitcoin has steadily printed higher lows and higher highs despite heavy selling earlier in the quarter. This pattern typically represents a weakening bearish structure, signalling that the dominant trend is under pressure. The market is not fully turned bullish yet, but it is no longer controlled by aggressive selling.
One of the clearest clues came from the volume profile. A large red selling candle — often associated with capitulation — printed as prices dropped sharply, hinting at emotional, panic-driven exits. Historically, such spikes often mark the end of a downtrend rather than the beginning of a new one. Following that event, trading volume contracted noticeably. Buyers and sellers both stepped back, indicating a market waiting for clarity rather than forcing direction.
Macro Uncertainty Keeps Traders on Pause
That hesitation aligns with the macro backdrop. Markets are effectively frozen ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Expectations remain tilted toward cuts, and if policymakers ease policy as anticipated, analysts believe it could push Bitcoin into the $98,000–$100,000 region. But a hawkish stance could pull the price back toward $85,000, and if this level fails to hold, a deeper decline toward $80,000 is not off the table.
This indecision defines the current environment. Bulls are active, but only defensively. Price reactions around $85,000 and $90,000 show buyers entering selectively — not with full conviction, but with enough interest to keep price structure constructive. This matches the view that institutional investors and long-term traders are quietly accumulating on dips, looking to position at attractive levels without attempting to chase momentum prematurely.
Momentum Indicators Align with Reversal Structure
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are beginning to reflect change. The RSI recently bounced from oversold territory and is now showing higher lows, which often precedes price recovery. It is lagging — as RSI typically does — but confirms pressure on sellers is easing. The MACD has also started curling upward, hinting at a positive cross that could strengthen the reversal structure if sustained.
Analysts Weigh In: Capitulation or Continuation?
Industry commentators highlight further layers of analysis supporting a maturing trajectory. Analyst Crypto Rover recently emphasized that Bitcoin has recorded its third consecutive weekly close below the 50-week moving average — a level that historically acts as a key dynamic support zone. While concerning at first glance, Rover interprets this behaviour as transitional rather than terminal.
It reflects the phase where markets digest earlier excesses, especially after sharp expansions in leverage. His view implies that prolonged trading below the MA50 typically invites re-accumulation and sets the stage for recovery rather than an extended collapse.
Another key narrative comes from Ali Martinez, who pointed to Bitcoin slipping below its Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio — a rare event that often leads to long-term support being found at Bitcoin’s Realized Price. With that threshold sitting near $56,355, Martinez implies that even if price weakens further in the short term, structural value support remains significantly lower, giving long-term bulls comfort that market imbalance may not extend too deeply.
Adding to the bullish interpretations, popular trader Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent dip to around $89,400 — partly linked to closing the CME futures gap — was rapidly absorbed by buyers.
According to him, this aggressive buying response shows the market is eager to defend price levels and that traders are now wrestling with key resistance. Van de Poppe argues that if Bitcoin can sustain levels above $92,000 in the coming days, the stage could be set for a rally toward $100,000 before 2026.
His analysis reinforces the narrative that demand remains strong even during pullbacks, contributing further to expectations of upside continuation.
Cautious Optimism, but Confirmation Still Missing
Taken together, both perspectives illustrate the same point: Bitcoin may be in decline, but deeper structural indicators and weakening downside momentum suggest this could be a late-stage drawdown rather than a fresh bearish wave.
Still, the most important ingredient missing is conviction. The market tone remains optimistic, but it is an optimism held in check — cautious, patient, and waiting for a catalyst. The Fed decision now stands as that defining moment. Whether bulls reclaim control or bears push another selloff will depend less on chart patterns and more on monetary policy.
For now, the price structure is improving, sentiment is stabilizing, analysts are increasingly seeing signs of exhaustion in selling, and accumulation behaviour continues at strategic levels. But without a break above $94,000, Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable transition zone.
A decisive push through that threshold would be the first true sign of trend reversal. Until then, investors are positioned quietly — defending more than attacking — and awaiting clarity.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AuthorRelated stories
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-price-analysis-bulls-push-into-a-critical-zone-is-the-sell-off-over/
