Crypto Market Consolidates as Funds Rotate to BTC and ETH After $2B Liquidations: Wintermute

After two months dominated by uncertainty, global markets are showing greater tolerance toward negative macro inputs, according to research commentary from Wintermute.

Concerns surrounding central bank policy pivots, uneven macroeconomic data, and questions around the sustainability of AI-driven capex remain, but they are no longer triggering the same reflexive risk-off reaction seen earlier in the quarter.

The result is a consolidation phase marked by choppy but more resilient trading patterns as price action settles into a range-bound structure. Wintermute notes that the market has shifted from reactive liquidation to a more measured environment of digestion and recalibration.

Crypto Sees Rotation Into Majors as Fragility Meets Resilience

In crypto, the shift has been one of consolidation rather than breakout. Bitcoin has recovered toward $92,000, while overall crypto market capitalization has rebounded to $3.25 trillion.

Last Friday’s sharp $4,000 intraday drawdown, triggered by cascading liquidations totaling $2 billion in just over an hour, showed the lingering fragility of the recovery.

However, the key takeaway for Wintermute was that the market absorbed the shock without follow-through selling, indicating growing resilience.

Fading momentum in the Nasdaq is pushing investors toward more selective risk-taking. Wintermute’s desk notes a rotation into majors, with rare simultaneous inflows into BTC and ETH from both retail and institutional participants.

Yet despite increased spot flows, the compressed basis reflects low conviction in leveraged positioning, as participants await clarity on the macro front.

Focus Turns to the Fed and BOJ as Altcoin Appetite Stalls

A packed central bank calendar is now driving positioning. Market attention is fixed on the Federal Reserve decision this Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan next week.

With CME basis compressed, interest has shifted toward delta-neutral strategies in lower-cap assets, where carry opportunities remain attractive, reports Wintermute.

This trend shows a lack of appetite for directional altcoin risk, with the market prioritizing yield capture and capital efficiency over speculative exposure—a posture consistent with consolidation rather than breakout.

Outlook: Consolidation Remains the Base Case

Wintermute’s research concludes that the market is consolidating without conviction, and major macro events are likely to dictate the next directional move. Activity has narrowed around the most liquid assets, while subdued funding and muted leverage reflect caution.

Absent a decisive macro surprise, crypto is expected to remain range-bound, with volatility driven more by liquidity and structural positioning than fundamentals. Rising interest in delta-neutral and carry strategies reinforces consolidation as the prevailing regime into year-end.