Bitcoin Price Prediction Hinges on a 4% Move — Here’s How

Bitcoin price has extended its correction after the FOMC rate cut. The coin is down about 13% over the past 30 days and almost 4% in the past week. The move still fits inside a slow, grinding corrective phase since the October peak.

But two on-chain shifts now show something that did not appear at any point earlier in this downturn. These signals suggest the correction could be close to a turn — if Bitcoin delivers the push it needs.

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Two Metrics Now Point Toward a Possible Turn

Short-term capitulation is showing up clearly now. CryptoQuant’s realized profit-and-loss data shows short-term Bitcoin holders are still deep in losses. This usually happens near the end of a correction, not the middle, because panicked selling at a loss often marks late-stage exhaustion.

This fits with what shows up on HODL Waves.

HODL Waves measure how much Bitcoin each “age band” holds — from very new coins to very old ones. It shows which groups are accumulating or selling. The one-day to one-week cohort held 6.2% of the supply in late November. By December 10, they held only 2%.

That is a massive 68% drop and signals heavy short-term selling, the kind that often completes a correction rather than starts a new one. Plus, this cohort dumping also pushes speculative money out of the asset.

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The next signal comes from Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks how many coins move into or out of exchanges each day.

On November 27, net flows were +5,103 BTC (coins moving in).

By December 10, the flows flipped to –43,292 BTC, a flip of more than 8.4x from inflows to outflows.

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A similar shift happened between September 17 and September 25. After that flip, Bitcoin rallied toward its all-time high above $126,000, per CoinGecko.

Now the same combination — short-term capitulation plus strong outflows — is forming again. Together, they create the cleanest trend-shift setup of this entire correction.

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Bitcoin Price Needs a 4% Push to Break Out?

If these signals are pointing to a turn, the Bitcoin price chart needs to confirm it. The Bitcoin price has been moving inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow at the same pace. Each side has only two touch points, which makes both trend lines weak. A small push can break the entire setup on either side.

That push is clear: Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,140, which is only about a 4% move from current levels. This level overlaps with both the horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the triangle. A clean breakout opens the path toward $97,320 and then $101,850.

On the downside, the nearest risk level is $90,180. A daily close under it weakens the bullish case. If that breaks, $87,010 is the next major support. Losing that exposes $80,640, where the broader bullish idea breaks.

Right now, the setup is neutral but improving. Short-term capitulation and heavy outflows give the Bitcoin price a chance to end its correction — but only if it delivers that 4% breakout.