Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: H200 Chip Shipments to China Planned for February

TLDR

• Nvidia targeting mid-February delivery of H200 chips to China with 5,000 to 10,000 modules representing 40,000 to 80,000 individual chips
• Beijing approval still required before any shipments can proceed, creating timeline uncertainty
• Trump’s 25% fee policy reverses Biden administration’s complete ban on advanced AI chip exports to China
• H200 chips offer six times the power of H20 models currently available in Chinese market
• Additional production capacity scheduled to open for orders in Q2 2026

Nvidia has set a mid-February target for shipping H200 AI chips to China. The company informed Chinese clients of the timeline, which aims for delivery before the Lunar New Year holiday.

Initial shipments will come from existing inventory. The chipmaker plans to send between 5,000 and 10,000 chip modules to China, equivalent to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 individual H200 chips.

Three sources familiar with the discussions shared the information with Reuters. All sources declined identification due to the private nature of the talks.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The entire plan hinges on approval from Beijing. Chinese officials have not yet greenlit any H200 purchases, and the timeline remains flexible based on government decisions.

Policy Reversal Opens Export Door

President Trump announced earlier this month that the U.S. would permit H200 sales to China. The sales will include a 25% fee attached to each transaction.

This decision marks a complete departure from Biden administration policy. Biden had implemented a full ban on advanced AI chip exports to China, citing national security risks.

The Trump administration launched an inter-agency review of license applications for H200 sales last week. This action follows through on the president’s commitment to allow the transactions.

Nvidia confirmed it manages its supply chain continuously. The company stated that licensed H200 sales to authorized Chinese customers won’t affect U.S. customer supply.

Future Capacity and Market Impact

Nvidia plans to expand H200 production capacity. Orders for the new capacity will open in the second quarter of 2026, according to sources.

The H200 belongs to Nvidia’s Hopper generation of chips. While newer Blackwell chips have since launched, the H200 remains popular for AI applications.

Supply has become tight because Nvidia prioritized production of Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin line. This production focus has made H200 chips harder to obtain.

Chinese officials convened emergency meetings this month to discuss the chip situation. They’re evaluating whether to permit the shipments to move forward.

One proposal under review would mandate bundling requirements. Each H200 purchase might need to include a predetermined ratio of domestically produced Chinese chips.

Tech Giants Eye Performance Boost

Major Chinese technology companies have shown interest in acquiring H200 chips. Alibaba and ByteDance are among those expressing purchase interest.

The H200 delivers roughly six times the performance of the H20 chip. Nvidia designed the H20 specifically as a downgraded version for the Chinese market.

Chinese companies currently rely on the H20 as their most powerful available option under existing restrictions. Access to H200 chips would represent a substantial upgrade in processing capability.

China continues developing its domestic AI chip industry. However, local manufacturers haven’t yet produced chips matching H200 performance levels.

Some analysts worry that H200 availability could reduce incentives for domestic chip development. Access to powerful foreign processors might decrease urgency for homegrown alternatives.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not commented on the potential shipments. The ministry would play a central role in any approval process for chip purchases.

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