U.S. economy beats 3.2% forecast with 4.3% Q3 2025 growth

The U.S. economy expanded by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, based on fresh numbers released Tuesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That growth rate caught most economists off guard, especially since Bloomberg’s survey of forecasters had pegged the number at just 3.2%.

The new GDP data comes after weeks of delay caused by the government shutdown, which also affected fourth-quarter figures that are now expected next year.

This update gives the most accurate picture of the economy in 2025 so far. The first-quarter GDP had dropped 0.5%, thanks to businesses front-loading purchases before President Donald Trump’s new tariffs hit. Then came a 3.8% jump in Q2, driven by reduced imports.

AI investments, EV sales, and exports push third-quarter gains

The third-quarter GDP surge was backed by three main things: AI infrastructure investments, rising consumer spending, and a boost in exports. Wealthy Americans spent more on electric vehicles, rushing to take advantage of Biden-era subsidies before they disappear. Healthcare spending was also up, adding to the total growth.

Meanwhile, imports fell again, which helped the GDP since imports subtract from the total. But Wall Street barely blinked. The dollar index, stock futures, and trading desks stayed mostly flat. Only Treasury yields ticked up a little, and even that was quiet.

Now, consumer spending is expected to slow. Add the shutdown’s continued effects, and the fourth quarter is looking weaker. That data’s also delayed. So until 2026 rolls around, this 4.3% GDP print is all we’ve got.

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