Solana Price Rises As Hodler Conviction Returns, 16% Rally Still Needed

Key Insights:

• Solana (SOL) price still needs a 16% move to $149 to confirm a trend change.
• Long-term holders increased supply while short-term selling pressure dropped.
• Losing $116 weakens the setup; breaking $149 opens targets up to $201.

Solana (SOL) price is near $128, up almost 4% in the last 24 hours. The bounce is happening because long-term holders on the blockchain are adding more coins again. These are patient investors who usually buy when they believe the worst part of a drop is finished.

Even with this support, the SOL price still needs to climb around 16% to reach $149, and that level is very important. Without it, the recent bounce stays incomplete and does not confirm a full trend change.

Hodler Waves Support Solana (SOL) Price, $149 Still Key

The strongest signal comes from holding data on the blockchain. This data is called HODL Waves. It tracks how long people keep their coins before moving them again.

When long-term groups grow, it usually means confidence is returning. Since December 26, the 6 to 12-month group increased from 13.9% of the supply to 14.7%.

At the same time, the two to three year group grew from 5.72% to 6.40%. These groups often only buy when they expect a recovery. These are the high conviction groups and usually have a long-term vision in mind.

Short-term trading groups are shrinking. The 1-day to 1-week group dropped from 7.04% to 4.87%. These are the traders who normally sell as soon as the price jumps a little.

When their share gets smaller, it usually results in slower selling on every small bounce. This gives the price more space to move upward if other buyers stay active.

This holding activity supports a signal already visible on the chart.

From Nov. 21 to Dec. 18, Solana price made lower lows, but the RSI, or the relative strength index indicator, made higher lows. RSI is a tool to measure buying and selling strength.

This mix of lower price and stronger RSI often shows that selling pressure is getting weaker. Even with this signal, Solana’s price still needs to close above $149 to show that buyers have taken control of the market again.

A $149 Breakout Can Open Higher Levels

Right now Solana price is squeezed between two important areas. The first is the $126 to $130 zone. This is called a liquidity cluster.

It is a place where many past trades happened. This zone can slow prices down because people often wait there to buy or sell again.

If Solana closes above this range with strength, it shows that the recent bounce has real support behind it.

If that happens, the next test is $149.

Solana’s price lost this level on Nov. 13 and has not taken it back for almost two months. It is the main line between recovery and continuation of the downtrend.

A clean break above $149 can open the chart toward $169, then $185, and maybe $201. These levels matter because sellers blocked prices there in the past.

Network activity gives the bounce some support. Solana decentralized exchanges, also called DEXs, have processed more than $1.7 trillion in trading volume this year.

Only Binance is higher. This means Solana is being used for real trades, not just hype. High usage does not guarantee a rally, but it gives the price a real foundation.

What Can Invalidate the Bullish Setup

The main support is $116. If the Solana price drops below $116, the bullish idea becomes weak again.

A move under this level can open a fall to $110 to $105. At that point, the recovery attempt would pause, and the Solana price would need a new setup to try again.

This is why the $126 to $130 zone and the $149 level matter so much. Solana’s price is stuck between these borders, and the next move decides direction.