OSL Trading Time: The market may enter a consolidation period before the next decline, and the behavior of large investors will become a key indicator

1. Market observation

Keywords: XRP, ETH, BTC

The current cryptocurrency market is in a turbulent period, with Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the core of market development, performing particularly well. The entire cryptocurrency market suffered a downturn on Tuesday, with major currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin suffering heavy losses. The total market value has fallen back below the $3 trillion mark, and a period of consolidation is expected before the next decline.

As for Bitcoin, the market has struggled in the face of aggressive investor sentiment, causing the price to fall below the $90,000 mark recently. On the regulatory level, several states are cautious about Bitcoin: Pennsylvania's Attorney General issued a warning that Bitcoin ATM fraud methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated; at the same time, South Dakota and Montana both rejected the Bitcoin Reserve Act proposal due to Bitcoin's high volatility and lack of practical application. Although Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000, the realization of this goal remains uncertain under current market conditions.

The Ethereum ecosystem is also facing multiple challenges. On the governance level, Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi resigned due to criticism of her role in the Ethereum Foundation. On the technical level, Ethereum's upgraded version Pectra experienced outages after its release due to developers' failure to specify the correct smart contract address. However, it is worth noting that Ethereum's cost basis distribution has shown a positive downward trend, indicating that investor sentiment and confidence in the currency are rising.

In terms of market dynamics, the well-known trading platform Bybit received a large number of Ethereum deposits from Mirana Ventures' Arkham despite suffering an elaborate malware attack last week that cost it more than $1.5 billion. This phenomenon occurred against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and Bitcoin falling below key support levels, highlighting the complexity of the market.

Looking ahead, the behavior of large investors (whales) will be a key indicator of market direction. Data shows that these large investors have transferred 26,430 BTC to known accumulation addresses. However, market signals indicate that Bitcoin's market structure is facing the threat of potential price adjustments and weakening support levels, and we need to continue to pay attention to future market developments.

2. Key data (as of 10:30 HKT on February 26)

• S&P 500: 5,955.25 (+1.25% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,026.39 (-1.47% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.324% (-25.20 basis points year-to-date)

• US dollar index: 106.37 (-1.95% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $88,598 (-5.16% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $84.7 billion

• Ethereum: $2,485.23 (-25.70% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $39.25 billion

3. ETF flows (February 25 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$773.41 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$50.08 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Second estimate of GDP quarterly growth rate (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 3.1% / Expected: 2.3%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Personal consumption expenditure month-on-month (09:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.7% / Expected: 0.2%

5. Hot News

Hemi mainnet will be launched on March 12, integrating Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems

Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi to Move to Chairman

AI company Anthropic plans to raise $3.5 billion at a valuation of $61.5 billion

Aave votes to suspend Polygon PoS chain lending, which may lead to a loss of more than $300 million in TVL

SEC ends investigation into Uniswap Labs without taking enforcement action

SEC confirms receipt of Grayscale Ethereum spot ETF pledge application

In the past hour, BlackRock deposited 18,168.3 ETH and 1,800 BTC to Coinbase

Market News: Nasdaq has submitted 19b-4 application documents for Grayscale DOT ETF

BTC falls below $87,000, down 7.84% on the day

Binance Pre Market launches upside circuit breaker mechanism

Upbit will list COW’s Korean Won, BTC and USDT trading pairs

Matrixport: Bitcoin has fallen below the rising extended wedge, beware of the downside risk of low trading volume

Time.fun founder: We will consider issuing platform tokens in the future, but at this stage we will focus on the market fit of the product

US SEC accepts Cardano spot ETF application submitted by Grayscale

Fed's Goolsbee: We need to wait and see Trump's policies before resuming rate cuts

Trump officially announced that the tariff plan on Mexico and Canada will be implemented as scheduled

Most tokens have fallen by 30% to 80% since mid-December last year, and the market value of SOL has shrunk by about US$50 billion in a single month.

Today, the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25, the lowest since September 2024, and the market turned into a state of extreme fear.

Citadel Securities, a large Wall Street market maker, plans to enter the cryptocurrency market making field

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin could drop to $70,000

Ethereum Pectra Upgrade Activated on Holesky Testnet but Failed to Confirm, Developers Are Investigating

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