Strategy Whipsaw: Benchmark Sees $705 in 2026 as MSTR Slumps 66%

Benchmark kept its Buy rating on Strategy and held a $705 price target tied to 2026 expectations, even as the stock slid from about $457 to near $152 in six months. Meanwhile, posts on X linked the drop to dilution, index risk, and a shrinking NAV premium, despite Strategy still holding about $59 billion in Bitcoin versus a roughly $46 billion market cap.

Benchmark Reiterates Buy on Strategy, Keeps $705 Target for 2026

Investment bank The Benchmark Company has reiterated its buy rating on Strategy, maintaining a $705 price target tied to 2026 expectations, according to reports circulating on Wednesday. The note continues to frame Strategy primarily as a bitcoin-focused treasury company, rather than a traditional software valuation story.

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the price target reflects Strategy’s large and growing Bitcoin holdings and the firm’s capital structure, which amplifies exposure to long-term bitcoin price movements. As a result, the research treats Strategy shares as a proxy for bitcoin performance, with added leverage from equity and debt instruments used to fund acquisitions.

While several crypto news platforms reported the reiteration on Wednesday, the analysis itself does not appear to be newly issued. Instead, the coverage references a Benchmark research note first published in early December and resurfaced at the start of the new year. No changes to the rating or price target were disclosed, and Benchmark did not announce a revised forecast.

Strategy, remains one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin globally. Consequently, its stock has continued to attract investor attention during periods of heightened focus on corporate bitcoin treasury strategies.

Strategy Shares Slide as Market Cap Falls Below Bitcoin Holdings

Shares of Strategy have dropped sharply over the past six months, underscoring how quickly market narratives can reverse for bitcoin-focused equities. According to price data shown on a widely shared chart, Strategy stock fell from about $457 to roughly $152, a decline of nearly 66%, erasing an estimated $90 billion in market value over the period.

In a post on X, a market commentator said the sell-off went beyond bitcoin’s broader pullback. Instead, the post pointed to equity dilution, index-related risks, and a collapse in Strategy’s net asset value premium as the main drivers of the decline. As the premium compressed, investors appeared to reassess how much they were willing to pay above the company’s underlying bitcoin holdings.

Despite the steep drop in its share price, Strategy’s balance sheet remains largely unchanged. The company still holds about $59 billion worth of bitcoin, based on prevailing market prices cited in the post. By contrast, Strategy’s equity market capitalization stands near $46 billion, implying that the stock now trades below the value of its bitcoin reserves.

The gap between asset value and market capitalization highlights the role of investor sentiment in pricing bitcoin-heavy companies. While Strategy’s holdings stayed intact, shifting expectations around leverage, dilution, and index exposure appear to have reshaped how the market values the stock, leaving the same balance sheet viewed through a very different psychological lens.