XRP starts 2026 under pressure despite SEC settlement, $1.4B spot ETF inflows

The token XRP starts 2026 with its 2025 achievements, including SEC case resolution and US spot exchange-traded fund introduction, but the token performed poorly and reached its lowest point since reaching its peak.

XRP reached $3.66 in value during 2025, but then its price dropped by 50% to $1.58 in October before finishing the year at $1.85.

The market remains uncertain about which factors will determine the future direction of this currency.

The market achieved major successes throughout 2025, but these accomplishments failed to maintain the upward trend of stock prices.

The United States Digital Asset Reserve’s selection of XRP as a candidate in March 2025 resulted in a 30%+ price increase.

The executive order created a reserve that could hold only seized assets, but it gave Bitcoin a unique status through its official backing without creating any method to buy XRP directly, according to historical news reports.

Ripple Labs then settled its years-long lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on May 8, setting up a rally to a seven-year high on July 18 before a drop to $2.73 less than two weeks later.

The Spot XRP ETFs entered the market in November 2025 and received continuous investment for 24 consecutive days, which brought in $1.06 billion of new capital and grew their total assets beyond $1.14 billion, according to SoSoValue.

The total ETF inflow, according to different estimates, has reached more than $1.4 billion since the fund started, which equals 2.3% of the entire supply.

The ETFs showed a powerful beginning, which did not lead to enduring market value growth because XRP performed worse than digital asset indexes during the entire year.

The market shows conflicting information between its on-chain data and its technical indicators.

Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger stayed below 45,000 for much of the last six months, with 38,500 recorded on Dec. 18, a 94% drawdown from a March peak above 600,000, per Glassnode data.

The exchange supply of XRP reached its lowest point since 2018, while velocity levels remain at the bottom of their historical range, which indicates market participants are holding their positions instead of selling their assets.

The technical analysis shows XRP failed to maintain its position above $2 and its 50-week moving average, which reached $1.87.

The support zone exists between $1.85 and $1.80, which corresponds to the 100-week EMA and the Nov. 21 low, according to analysts who predict long liquidations will drive prices toward $1.61 before the 200-day EMA at $1.38 becomes a potential stabilization point.

Key levels heading into early 2026

XRP reached $1.85 during the last month of 2025, and its current value exceeds $1.80, which experts view as the most reliable indicator for future market trends.

The support level should maintain its position, which would make a $2.00 price test possible while the RSI indicator shows 48, which allows the price to reach $2.20 in the short term.

The market would experience a bearish trend when prices stay below $1.80 because this would destroy the current bullish pattern, which would lead to a potential price drop to $1.60.

The market outlook contains opposing market expectations, which show both negative and positive trends.

Multiple market observers predict XRP has reached its peak value for the current market cycle.

The veteran trader Peter Brandt shows through his chart analysis that the token price might reach below $1 during the following weeks or months because of a possible double top formation.

Others remain constructive.

Chad Steingraber from Analyst predicts that the price will reach $10 from $2 during 2026 because of ongoing ETF purchases and strong market indicators over extended time periods.

Standard Chartered analysts predicted that the price will exceed $8 during 2026 because of improving regulatory conditions and increasing spot ETF market interest.

The Trump administration will maintain its industry-friendly oversight during 2026, which will act as a policy factor for Ripple, while their business alliances could create positive market conditions.

The year 2025 brought XRP both significant legal achievements and market structure advancements, yet the cryptocurrency failed to achieve any substantial price increase.

The success of 2026 will depend on two essential factors, which include maintaining support levels at $1.80 and better network activity and ETF investment inflows that consume available supply at a rapid pace to shift market attitudes.

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