Insiders place January U.S.–Iran attack bets on Polymarket

Four new crypto wallets have placed bets on a US military strike against Iran before January 31 on Tuesday, after Polymarket listed new contracts on whether the United States would launch air strikes against Iran by the end of January, March, or June.

According to crypto market activity tracker Lookonchain, all the wallets placed “yes” bets when implied odds were below 18%. Their current positions at the time of this reporting were worth $2,888, $3,863, $1,167, and $9,933, respectively.

Since none of the wallets placed any other wagers, netizens believe they are all insiders acting on non-public information. Polymarket has priced the probability of a US strike on Iran by January 31 at 16%, down slightly after a brief surge to 18% when protests in Tehran began earlier this week.

Polymarket traders move attention to US-Iran after Venezuela invasion

Polymarket added the Iran strike contracts days after the United States carried out a military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cryptopolitan reported. That episode saw an anonymous trader turn $96 wagered on Maduro’s downfall December 27, into more than $400,000.

The anonymous account’s final bet was placed at 9:58 PM ET on a Friday, less than five hours before explosions shook Caracas and shortly before President Donald Trump ordered the operation to proceed.

Insider trading is illegal in most traditional equity markets, and regulators closely monitor suspicious transactions ahead of major corporate or political events. However, decentralized platforms like Polymarket have fewer safeguards that may provide a “breathing room” for users to place bets on real-world outcomes using insider information.

Over the past nine hours, over nine new accounts have also placed bets that Israel would strike Iran before January 31, pushing the implied probability to 37%, according to Polymarket data. Several news reports in the past two days have indicated that Netanyahu has approved a new plan to attack Iran, codenamed “Operation Iron Hammer.”

Israeli media reports said the military has been placed on high alert, although officials have not publicly confirmed the details of the plan.

Markets react more to the perception of insider action than actual news, so this could create a volatility spree before any official confirmation. If the US-Iran cold war is anything like the Maduro situation, traders could be looking at another upswing or downturn in the markets sooner than later.

Israel more likely to attack Iran than the US

Protests in Iran have now spread from the capital to other cities on Thursday, which forced the country’s reestablished National Defense Council to issue a statement mulling preemptive military action on the US.

The council insisted that Iran would not limit itself to retaliation if it perceived credible threats to its security. A 12-day war in June last year killed more than 1,100 people in Iran and left 28 dead in Israel, according to Al Jazeera.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said last year that Iran’s response to any aggression would be “severe and regret-inducing,” remarks that came hours after US President Trump told reporters Washington could soon resume military operations against Iran at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

“Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down,” Trump said, standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We’ll knock the hell out of them.”

Trump added that he would support strikes on Iran’s nuclear program “immediately” and on missile facilities if Tehran continues developing long-range weapons.

The United States is focusing its pressure on Iran’s nuclear activities, rather than missile capabilities, which have been a concern for Israel. Iran claims that its nuclear program is strictly civilian, and US intelligence agencies supported by the United Nations nuclear watchdog did not find evidence of weapons production before the June strikes carried out by the US and Israel.

“If the Americans do not reach an agreement with the Iranians that halts their ballistic missile program, it may be necessary to confront Tehran,” said an Israeli official speaking to news publication Ynet on Monday.

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