Euro CPI on target, ECB hawkish bias intact – ING

Despite sub-consensus German CPI, euro area figures were in line with the 2.0% consensus. As discussed yesterday, even a small undershooting wouldn’t have triggered material dovish repricing given the ECB’s hawkish communication, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD seen neutral with 1.170 in focus

“The focus for the euro at this stage is on geopolitics, looking at both the West (Greenland) and the East (Ukraine). On the former, the US and Denmark will meet next week to discuss Greenland, where the White House is reportedly considering business deals to gain a footprint on the island. The Trump administration has nevertheless kept the threat of military intervention as a possibility, although there is little priced in at this stage.”

“EUR/DKK has been trading on the strong side but is only some 0.15% above the 7.460 peg level. The Danish central bank allows +/- 2.25%, even if deviations are generally well below 0.5%. It is possible that the central bank is buying DKK: in 2019-20, FX interventions were deployed around these spot levels. A decisive break above 7.4740 – a level well defended in 2019-20 – would be a slightly more worrying signal.”

“On Ukraine, the UK and France have agreed to send troops if a peace deal is agreed. So far, the euro has remained largely unreactive to the small progress being made. We retain a short-term neutral view on EUR/USD, with 1.170 as a target. Strong German factory orders this morning don’t seem to be moving the needle in the spot.”