Weak November job data deemed ‘alarming’

THE RISE in November unemployment indicates a loss of momentum sufficient to outweigh the pickup in holiday hiring, raising concerns about the health of the broader economy, analysts said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the data indicate “a mixed labor market, not a collapse but a loss of momentum.”

He added that while unemployment fell slightly month on month from October on the strength of holiday hiring, “the fact that it is still higher than a year earlier, despite the seasonal boost, suggests underlying weakness.” 

“This reflects slower economic growth, weather disruptions, and cautious hiring, meaning seasonal demand helped only partially. The labor market is stabilizing aftershocks, but not strengthening, which is a warning sign if growth and investment do not pick up,” Mr. Rivera said.

The November 2025 Labor Force Survey confirmed a persistent pattern of fragile job generation, according to Sentro ng mga Nagkakaisa at Progresibong Manggagawa (SENTRO).

On Wednesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported an unemployment rate of 4.4%, against 3.2% a year earlier.

“This outcome is particularly alarming because it comes at the start of the Christmas season, when stronger consumer demand should normally translate into more hiring,” the group said. “If jobs are weak during Christmas, the economy is clearly underperforming. The failure to generate robust employment during a peak season highlights the fragility of current growth.”

It added that Philippines continues to lag most ASEAN economies, which are reporting unemployment rates below 3%, leaving the Philippines an outlier alongside Indonesia.

“Domestic job creation is falling behind the region,” SENTRO said. 

Adding to the concern is the decline in job quality. Manufacturing continues to shed jobs, while wage and salary employment has slipped. More workers are moving into self-employment or into unpaid family work.

“We are not just creating fewer jobs — we are creating worse jobs,” SENTRO said, warning that this trend signals rising vulnerability and informality in the labor market rather than the expansion of stable, productive employment.

Jose Enrique A. Africa, executive director at think tank IBON Foundation, told BusinessWorld that the trend is “super-problematic.”

“Growth is slowing, the jobs market is weakening, and real incomes or wages are likely falling despite inflation moderating, all of which explains why poverty and hunger are growing,” Mr. Africa said.

National statistician and PSA undersecretary Claire Dennis S. Mapa said that while employment increased in the first 11 months of 2025, the rise is not as significant as last year’s growth.

On the December 2025 outlook, he told reporters that “possibly there will be a higher increase in employed persons compared to December last year. We will be seeing it in February.”

Asked whether the slowdown in infrastructure spending due to the flood control corruption scandal might have affected employment data, Mr. Mapa said there was no clear impact yet “based on the numbers.”

“We will see when we report the Q4 GDP on Jan. 29, because that will show the value of production in construction,” he said. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking