TSMC expected to report record Q4 profit of $15.02 billion, up 27% from last year

TSMC is set to post a sharp jump in fourth-quarter profit as demand for artificial intelligence hardware keeps running hot and smartphone orders stay heavy. Analysts expect net income to rise 27% from a year earlier, pushing results to a new quarterly record.

TSMC, which of course remains the world’s largest contract chipmaker, is predicted to report T$475.2 billion, or $15.02 billion, in net profit for the three months ended December 31.

The estimate comes from an LSEG SmartEstimate, which blends forecasts from 19 analysts and gives more weight to those with stronger track records.

Any result above T$452.3 billion would mark the company’s highest quarterly profit ever and extend its run to an eighth straight quarter of profit growth. Last week, the company already reported a 20.45% jump in Q4 revenue, beating market expectations.

AI demand and smartphone chips push production and outlook higher

Fourth-quarter revenue strength came from full use of advanced chip capacity. TSMC ran its 3-nanometre lines at full tilt, helped by Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup using the A19 chip. AI orders stayed strong at the same time.

Galen Zeng, a senior research manager at IDC, said both trends combined to drive the quarter’s performance. He added that demand for AI infrastructure did not cool late in the year.

According to IDC, it now expects TSMC revenue to grow 25% to 30% in 2026 in U.S. dollar terms. That is higher than the prior forecast of 22% to 26%.

The upgrade is tied to rising orders for AI server accelerators and growing output from the next 2-nanometre process. The company plans to share first-quarter and full-year guidance during its earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT on Thursday.

By market value, TSMC sits at roughly $1.38 trillion, making it Asia’s most valuable listed firm. That valuation is more than double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics. The stock’s performance backed that gap. Shares listed in Taipei climbed 44.2% last year, well ahead of the 25.7% gain in the stock market.

Investment spending remains heavy. TSMC is putting $165 billion into new chip plants in Arizona. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on a podcast released last week that the company is set to invest more in the country.

Trade policy remains a question mark. It is not clear how tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump will affect TSMC. Taiwan exports to the United States face a 20% tariff, but chips are excluded.

Meanwhile, ahead of its Q4 earnings release, Nvidia stock traded at $184.97, down 0.1% on the day. The stock remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $182.70 and $178.30. Support sits between $178 and $180. Resistance remains near $207, a level rejected in December.

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