AAVE: Rise or Fall? January 14, 2026 Scenario Analysis

AAVE is currently trading at $177.34 and showing uptrend signals with a 4.07% rise in the last 24 hours. However, with RSI at 68.24 approaching overbought territory, Supertrend giving a bearish signal, and $180 resistance being critical, this situation makes both a bullish breakout and rejection with pullback scenarios equally likely. Traders should be prepared for both directions and monitor trigger levels.

Current Market Situation

AAVE traded in the $169.01 – $180.12 range supported by $258.25M volume. The price is moving above the short-term EMA20 ($171.32), indicating bullish short-term momentum. The MACD histogram is positive and rising, but RSI at 68.24 warns of potential momentum slowdown – typically above 70 is considered overbought, where correction risk increases.

The Supertrend indicator is in bearish position and pointing to $188.27 resistance, reflecting pressure from higher timeframes. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detected 14 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/3R on 3D, 3S/5R distribution on 1W. This paints a resistance-heavy picture on the weekly frame and increases imbalance.

Critical levels are as follows: Supports $175.2275 (strength: 75/100) and $167.6901 (60/100); Resistances $180.0025 (64/100), $182.6320 (64/100), $206.7400 (60/100). The current R/R ratio, based on bull target $206.74 (+16.6%) and bear target $158.52 (-10.6%), favors bullish (1.56% R/R), but market volatility keeps both scenarios alive. News flow is calm, so technicals dominate.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Plays Out?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking above $180.0025 resistance with increased volume and closing above it. This level (64/100 strength) is a test point confirming short-term EMA20 and MACD bullish crossover. Post-breakout, a quick move to $182.6320 is expected; a Supertrend flip (turning bullish) there would be strong confirmation. Even if RSI hits 70, if no divergence forms (i.e., new highs align with price), momentum continues.

In MTF, if 1D and 3D supports ($175 and below) hold, 1W resistances can be overcome. Volume should exceed $258M – e.g., $300M+ – and MACD histogram should expand. In this scenario, the uptrend channel widens and Fibonacci extension levels (e.g., 1.618) come into play. Traders should watch breakout pullbacks ($180 area) as buying opportunities, but bearish divergence on RSI (price new high, RSI lower) is an invalidation signal.

This roadmap trains traders to mark levels in advance and manage stop-losses dynamically: Fakeout risk is high without breakout volume.

Target Levels

First target $182.6320 (short-term), then $188.27 (Supertrend resistance), and final $206.7400 (60/100 strength, MTF confluence). This level aligns with 1W Fibonacci target and past highs. Potential extension to $220s, but resistance tests required at each step. Invalidation: Close below $175.2275 invalidates the scenario and turns bearish.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario starts with rejection at $180.0025 resistance – price tests this level, volume drops, and a red candle close appears. With RSI divergence from 68 (RSI falling even if price rises), momentum loss is confirmed. Supertrend bearish signal strengthens and drop below EMA20 ($171.32) triggers. If $175.2275 support (75/100) breaks, cascading sales accelerate.

In MTF, 5 resistances on 1W (including 3D) increase overall pressure. Volume decrease (below $200M) or general market (BTC) correction are risk factors. If MACD histogram approaches zero and turns negative, bearish crossover is confirmed. This scenario teaches traders risk management: Short opportunities after resistance rejection, but wait for support hold.

Protection Levels

First protection $175.2275, breakout carries to $167.6901. Final target $158.5240 (25 score, MTF support confluence). Can extend deeper to $150s, but volume confirmation required at each level. Invalidation: Close above $180 cancels bearish and turns bullish. These levels are critical training points for position sizing and trailing stops.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: $180.0025 – upside breakout bullish, rejection bearish. Volume profile decisive: +20% increase on breakout bullish, volume-less candle on rejection bearish. Monitor RSI divergence: Aligned highs for bullish, negative divergence for bearish. MACD histogram width and Supertrend flip confirm. MTF confluence: Bulls superior if 1W resistances cleared, bears if supports broken.

Follow general market correlation (BTC dominance) and AAVE Spot Analysis with AAVE Futures Analysis pages. Volatility high; adjust invalidation levels to risk in every scenario.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

AAVE at crossroads: $180 area critical, both scenarios technically based and equally probable. Traders should mark levels and wait for confirmation with volume/RSI/MACD. Daily closes and MTF alignment decisive. This analysis helps develop your own decisions – market always open to surprises.

Watchlist:

• $180.0025: Breakout vs Rejection
• RSI Divergence
• Volume $258M+
• EMA20 ($171.32) hold
• Supertrend Flip