XRP Price Prediction: XRP Breakout Signals Build as Regulatory Wins Fuel $6.62–$18 Long-Term Scenarios

XRP price action is drawing renewed attention as technical structure, regulatory developments, and on-chain behavior begin to align. While short-term volatility remains present, recent data suggest that the asset is holding key levels that have historically mattered during transitional market phases, rather than late-cycle peaks.

Technical Analysts Highlight Cycle-Based XRP Breakout Signals

Several analysts have highlighted XRP’s longer-term price structure as approaching a transitional phase. Crypto analyst Amonyx, known for cycle-based market studies, shared a multi-year XRP/USD chart dividing price history into four distinct phases.

A long-term XRP/USD chart suggests a Phase 3-to-Phase 4 breakout, targeting $3.84–$6.62, as XRP trades near $2.12 after a 25% YTD gain, supported by Ripple’s licensing approvals. Source: Amonyx via X

“We’re getting close. Patience is key with XRP now,” Amonyx noted, suggesting the asset may be moving from Phase 3 (range expansion) into Phase 4, a stage typically associated with trend continuation rather than initial breakout attempts.

According to the model, the first major technical milestone remains the prior all-time high near $3.84. The extended $6.62 projection assumes a confirmed weekly close above historical resistance, accompanied by sustained volume expansion—conditions XRP has struggled to maintain consistently in prior cycles.

XRP Super Cycle Narrative Gains Attention

A broader, longer-term perspective has also gained traction among market participants. Analyst Ali Charts, who frequently focuses on macro crypto structures, highlighted a weekly XRP chart showing a historical peak near $3 followed by a deep retracement toward $0.50, with a clearly marked accumulation zone.

Ali Charts highlighted a “buy” zone on XRP’s weekly chart, fueling supercycle talks with forecasts up to $18.40 by end-2026, while XRP trades at $2.08, down 3%. Source: Ali Martinez via X

“I’m hearing about an XRP supercycle,” Ali Charts wrote, referencing the concept of a prolonged multi-year expansion rather than a short-term rally.

Some forecasts cited within this narrative suggest XRP could reach levels near $18.40 by late 2026. These projections are typically anchored to assumptions around regulatory clarity, increased real-world asset tokenization, and rising institutional participation. However, such targets remain scenario-based rather than baseline expectations and would require sustained liquidity inflows and favorable macro conditions.

XRP Price Holds Key Support Despite Heavy Exchange Inflows

Recent on-chain data from Glassnode shows that more than 200 million XRP have moved to centralized exchanges since the beginning of 2026, pushing total exchange balances to approximately 1.66 billion XRP. At the current XRP crypto price, this equates to roughly $430 million in potential sell-side liquidity.

XRP was trading at around $2.07, down 2.18% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin

Rising exchange balances are typically associated with increased short-term risk, as they expand immediately available supply. However, XRP’s ability to remain above the $2.10 support level suggests that selling pressure has so far been met with sufficient demand.

In past XRP drawdowns—most notably during mid-2022 and late-2023—similar divergences between rising exchange balances and flat price action preceded extended consolidation phases rather than sharp breakdowns. This pattern implies that portions of the sell flow may be absorbed by larger or longer-term participants rather than triggering forced exits.

Short-Term Price Levels to Watch

From a structural perspective, XRP continues to follow the Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution (AMD) framework commonly used in short-term market analysis. Recent price action confirmed a Change in State of Delivery (CISD), a signal that control has shifted back toward buyers following a liquidity sweep.

XRP respected its AMD structure, with buyers entering at the H1 Balanced Price Range and targeting $2.41 under controlled risk. Source: Skinwah on TradingView

Near-term resistance remains concentrated around $2.20, with upside liquidity zones identified near $2.31 and $2.41. A sustained move above these levels would strengthen the case for continuation. Conversely, a decisive break below $2.10—or a sustained move under $2.00—would weaken the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of prolonged consolidation.

Looking Forward: XRP Price Prediction Balances Optimism With Caution

While longer-term projections ranging from $6.62 to $18 reflect growing optimism, analysts generally emphasize conditional probability rather than certainty. These outcomes depend on sustained accumulation, moderation in exchange inflows, continued regulatory clarity, and supportive broader market conditions.

Importantly, the higher-end scenarios would likely be invalidated by persistent growth in exchange balances, failure to reclaim prior all-time highs, or renewed legal headwinds. For now, XRP remains in a technically constructive—but still developing—phase.

Whether this structure evolves into a full-scale breakout or extends into another consolidation period should become clearer as 2026 progresses and these conditions resolve.