Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Can Strong ETF Demand Overcome Trade War Fears?

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s price outlook remains technically constructive around $91,000 despite Monday’s sell-off that triggered over $865 million in liquidations.
• Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin could reach $110,000 but expects a “slow bleed” period first, requiring two to three weekly closes above the 50-week moving average.
• Strong spot Bitcoin ETF flows last week reached their highest level in three months, suggesting durable institutional demand.
• U.S.-Europe trade tensions over Greenland and potential 25% tariffs from February 1 are creating volatility across crypto markets.
• Cowen believes late 2026 could mark the next accumulation window based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle pattern.

Bitcoin has stabilized around $91,000 after Monday’s sharp sell-off, which saw over $865 million in liquidations across the crypto market. The recovery came quickly, suggesting strong underlying demand according to digital assets investment firm ZeroCap.

The sell-off was triggered by escalating trade tensions between the United States and Europe. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on imports from several European countries starting February 1 unless they dropped objections to his Greenland policy.

Trump has intensified his push to assert U.S. control over Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. He sent a text message to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on Monday regarding the issue. Støre confirmed the exchange and reaffirmed Norway’s position that Greenland belongs to Denmark.

The president also expressed frustration over not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize for his foreign-policy efforts. He has argued repeatedly that he deserves the award for his role in past diplomatic agreements.

ZeroCap analysts described the market recovery as an “early-stage risk-on rotation.” They noted that strong structural flows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are proving more durable than short-term positioning. Last week’s ETF netflows reached the highest level in three months.

However, some analysts remain cautious about the short-term outlook. Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, pointed to the 25-delta skew trend lower as evidence that investors are buying puts for downside protection.

Market Volatility Drivers

Three macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could sustain high volatility in crypto markets. These include the U.S.-Europe trade dispute over Greenland, delayed regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act, and the pending Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s global tariff policy.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto trading platform VALR, said tariff threats and retaliatory measures have historically created headwinds for digital and other risk assets. The market is pricing in the possibility that prolonged escalations could disrupt previous trade agreements and strain international relations.

Analyst Predictions for Bitcoin’s Path

Cowen remains partially allocated to Bitcoin to avoid emotional trading decisions. He said owning some Bitcoin prevents him from being completely sidelined if a counter-trend rally occurs to $100,000.

Rather than targeting specific price levels, Cowen uses a time-based approach aligned with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. He explained that buying near the end of the midterm year and selling during the post-halving year’s fourth quarter has been the winning strategy across the last three market cycles.

Cowen believes this same logic applies to the current cycle. He suggests the next accumulation window could arrive in late 2026. He refrained from making explicit price predictions, noting that analysts face backlash when they are wrong by even small margins.

Cowen said the wind is currently blowing in the bearish direction but expects the winds will change by the fourth quarter of 2026. Bitcoin currently trades near $91,000 according to CoinGecko data.

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