LIT Technical Analysis Jan 20

LIT is trading horizontally around $1.70, standing at a critical juncture with mixed technical signals. RSI is at neutral level (48.64), MACD shows a positive histogram while Supertrend gives a bearish signal. This situation carries breakout potential in both directions, and investors need to closely monitor trigger levels. Market volume is healthy at $154M, but Bitcoin’s downtrend could create pressure on altcoins.

Current Market Situation

LIT is trading daily at the $1.70 level, forming a horizontal channel in the $1.52-$1.72 range with a %2.81 rise over the last 24 hours. Volume is at a medium-high level of $154.41M, signaling preparation for volatility. Looking at technical indicators, RSI at 48.64 is in the neutral zone, showing neither overbought conditions nor seller dominance. MACD with a positive histogram carries short-term upward momentum, and the price above EMA20 ($0.76) exhibits a bullish short-term outlook. However, Supertrend gives a bearish signal, and although the $1.27 resistance has been surpassed, attention to higher resistance points is essential.

Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 17 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1D with 3 supports/4 resistances, 3D with 2S/2R, 1W with 5S/3R distribution. Critical supports are $0.5210 (score 76/100), $0.6371 (71/100), $0.3868 (69/100). Resistance points stand out as $0.9103 (77/100), $1.1507 (72/100), $1.0305 (71/100). While the price holds above these levels, the channel lower band at $1.52 plays a critical role. There is no news flow, requiring a technically focused analysis.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking the $1.72 daily high resistance with high volume. This breakout is confirmed by the MACD histogram expanding further and RSI rising to the 50-60 band. Solidification of short-term EMAs (above EMA20) and Supertrend flipping to bullish provide additional strengthening. Market volume rising to $200M+ indicates buyer dominance. In MTF, a close above the 1D resistance (around $0.9103 surpassed) gains momentum with 3D and 1W supports kicking in. Bitcoin recovering from the $88,300 support supports this scenario. If these conditions are not met, the scenario becomes invalid below $1.52.

Target Levels

First target $1.90 (fib 1.618 extension), followed by $2.10 (psychological and MTF resistance). With stronger momentum, $2.50 (1W target) can be reached. To optimize risk/reward ratio, long positions can be entered with $1.52 stop-loss, providing 1:3 R/R to targets. While monitoring these levels, use volume increase and candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing) as confirmation mechanisms.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario begins with the break of the $1.52 channel lower band and a close below it. This is triggered by the Supertrend bearish signal strengthening, MACD histogram turning negative, and RSI falling below 40. If volume increase comes from sellers (watch if breakout volume is low), momentum shifts downward. In MTF, with 4 resistances in 1D, rejection is likely; Bitcoin falling below $88,300 increases pressure. Lack of news indicates the technical break will be effective. Invalidation occurs with a close above $1.72.

Protection Levels

First stop at $1.52 break, targets $1.15 (mid resistance conversion), $0.91 (strong resistance), $0.6371 (MTF support). In a deep decline, it can drop to $0.5210 and $0.3868. Short positions can be entered with $1.72 stop, targeting 1:2.5 R/R. Watch for increasing buy volume at these levels, as there is bounce potential at supports.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: Upside $1.72 breakout with volume >$180M and RSI>55; downside $1.52 breakdown with volume increase and RSI<45. Confirmation signals: candle closes, MACD crossover, and EMA crosses. Monitor ATR to measure volatility (current ~%5). In both scenarios, size positions according to R/R and use trailing stops. Follow live data from LIT Spot Analysis and LIT Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is in a downtrend at $88,484 with -%4.59, Supertrend bearish. Altcoins like LIT are highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+), BTC breaking $88,300 support creates pressure on LIT at $1.52. Conversely, if BTC rises to $90,944 resistance, LIT’s bullish scenario strengthens. Main BTC levels: Supports $88,300/$86,637/$84,691; resistance $90,944/$92,953/$97,924. Rising dominance crushes altcoins, in declines a %1 BTC move reflects as %2-3 in LIT. Watch BTC, as altcoin rallies usually come after BTC stabilization.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

LIT’s horizontal channel offers equal probability for both scenarios: bullish with breakout volume and BTC recovery, bearish with channel break and BTC pressure. Key monitoring points: $1.72/$1.52 levels, RSI/MACD changes, volume profile, and BTC $88k band. Traders should plan according to their own risk tolerance; always use stop-loss and avoid emotional decisions. This analysis is for educational purposes to prepare for different outcomes. Visit LIT spot and futures pages for daily updates.