Robinhood (HOOD) Stock: Oversold Signal Flashes After Bitcoin Crash – Time to Buy?

TLDR

• Robinhood (HOOD) plummeted 9.7% to $89.85 on Monday, marking the S&P 500’s worst performance as Bitcoin crashed to $74,553
• Football season’s conclusion threatens prediction market revenue, which accounted for nearly half of Kalshi’s trading volume since August
• The stock’s 14-day RSI of 23 indicates oversold conditions after a 21% decline year-to-date
• Piper Sandler keeps its $155 price target, expecting the CLARITY Act and upcoming sports events to drive recovery
• Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy rating with analysts viewing the selloff as overdone

Robinhood shares crashed on Monday. The stock fell 9.7% to $89.85, earning the dubious distinction of being the S&P 500’s worst performer.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

The brokerage has stumbled badly in 2026. Shares are down 21% year-to-date, a stark contrast to last year’s 200% surge.

Bitcoin’s collapse weighed heavily on the stock. The cryptocurrency plunged to $74,553, its lowest level in 10 months, before bouncing back to $78,500.

Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair triggered the crypto selloff. Digital-asset traders didn’t like what they heard.

Robinhood’s business is deeply tied to crypto performance. The platform offers trading in more than 50 crypto tokens, making it vulnerable to price swings and volume declines.

The stock’s correlation with Bitcoin is well-documented. When crypto drops, Robinhood typically follows suit.

Sports Betting Takes a Hit

The football season finale is adding pressure to the stock. Piper Sandler analysts point to this as a key concern for investors.

Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue stream. Football drove roughly half of all volume on Kalshi, the company’s primary prediction markets partner, since August.

Sunday marks the end of football season. That leaves a potential hole in revenue that has investors nervous.

Patrick Moley from Piper Sandler sees opportunities ahead. The winter Olympics begin this month, and NCAA basketball tournament tips off in March.

Analysts See Buying Opportunity

Piper Sandler isn’t backing down from its bullish stance. The firm maintains an Overweight rating with a $155 price target, suggesting 70% upside from current levels.

The CLARITY Act could provide a boost. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced this crypto market structure bill last week, despite Coinbase initially pulling support in January.

The legislation may accelerate blockchain adoption. This could help Robinhood expand its token offerings in coming months.

Future events look promising for prediction markets. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and midterm elections should generate strong trading volume later this year.

Regulatory clarity from new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig could also help. Clear rules make it easier for companies to operate and grow.

Technical indicators suggest the stock is oversold. With a 14-day RSI around 23, a near-term bounce could be in the cards.

Wall Street consensus remains Moderate Buy. The mean price target sits at approximately $151, indicating analysts believe the selloff went too far.

Robinhood launched a UK stocks and shares ISA on Monday. This expansion could add to the revenue mix throughout 2026.

Piper Sandler calls Robinhood the best play on retail trading growth. The firm believes it’s the closest fintech platform to becoming a true super app.

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