TAO Technical Analysis Feb 4

TAO’s 24-hour trading volume reached 158.88 million dollars, and despite a slight 1.38% price drop, the volume staying below average indicates limited selling pressure. Market participation is low, signaling a possible accumulation process and carrying potential for a trend reversal.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

TAO’s current volume profile stands out with 158.88 million dollars in trading volume over the last 24 hours. This level is running about 20-30% below the average weekly volume and reflects limited participation even in the general market downtrend. Volume typically remains low during pullbacks, with slight increases observed in upward tests; this shows that the broader public is not joining the selling, and the market is in a consolidation phase. In the volume profile, there is concentration around the Value Area High (VAH) level near $193.60 – this region forms a strong support with 70% volume contribution over the past weeks. In terms of market participation, retail investor interest appears to have decreased; however, this could indicate periods where professional players are quietly strengthening their positions. Volume delta analysis shows negative delta dominance (selling volume exceeds buying volume), but the low absolute volume value weakens the trend’s strength. In the MTF volume context over the last three days, 8 strong levels were identified: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/3 resistance on 3D, and 2 support/3 resistance on 1W. This structure reveals that volume-supported levels predominantly offer upward opportunities. Overall, the volume profile supports healthy base formation despite the downtrend; participation rates hovering around 40% emphasize that a major selling wave has not yet arrived.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are strong: Although the price is below EMA20 ($224.20), RSI at 31.95 is approaching the oversold region in line with volume decline – this is a classic Wyckoff accumulation phase feature. Volume stays 25% lower on down days, while small upward reactions show volume increases; for example, a volume spike at the $184.32 support test confirms buying interest. Over the past week, volume-weighted average price (VWAP) has stabilized around $210, and holding below the price suggests institutional buying is quietly active. MTF 1W support levels (2 in total) reinforce the accumulation base.

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings are limited but present: Although MACD shows a bearish signal with a negative histogram, there is no volume climax selling – low-volume leakage is seen instead of high-volume down bars. If volume increases at $204.27 resistance (score 60/100), the risk of shifting to distribution rises; MTF 3D and 1W have 6 resistance levels carrying this potential. Bearish target $80.59 (score 22) may remain distant without volume confirmation.

Price-Volume Confluence

Price action is partially aligned with volume but shows significant divergences. Despite the 1.38% drop, volume is low – instead of the high selling volume expected in a healthy downtrend, low participation indicates the trend is exhausting. Volume confirmation is weak in upward moves: Volume increase is required for EMA20 breakout. RSI divergence (lower price, higher RSI base) is supported by volume; volume increase at $184.32 held the price. Overall confluence score is 60% bearish, 40% bullish divergence in favor – price alone is misleading, volume shows weakness.

Large Player Activity

Large player patterns are accumulation-focused: Point of Control (POC) in the volume profile is stable around $195, with institutional-level block trades concentrating in this area. Against low retail volume, off-exchange volume increase (15%) signals whale buying. No aggressive selling in the last 72 hours; on the contrary, absorption patterns (high bid volume) are seen in support tests. Although Supertrend is bearish ($247.76 resistance), volume footprints suggest institutions carry a long bias – even if exact positions are unknown, patterns favor accumulation.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,108 with a 3% drop is in a downtrend; TAO remaining relatively resilient with a lighter 1.38% loss gives a decoupling signal. BTC supports at $75,692 and $72,983 are critical – if broken, pressure increases below $184 for TAO. If BTC resistances at $77,830 and above recover, TAO could rise to $204.27. Since BTC Dominance Supertrend is bearish, be cautious for altcoins, but TAO’s volume resilience supports decoupling from BTC. Key BTC levels: Support below $75k = TAO risk, above $77k = TAO opportunity.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is neutral-bullish: Low-volume downtrend is weak; if $184.32 holds, accumulation completes and $204-290 targets become accessible with volume confirmation (bullish score 15, but volume strengthens it). In a bearish scenario, descent to $80 requires climax volume – current low participation prevents this. Watch: Volume >200M spike = bullish flip, <100M drop = bear warning. Volume tells a recovery story beyond price; if support holds, long bias increases. Details available in TAO Spot Analysis and TAO Futures Analysis.