Bitcoin Bounces From $72.8K, but On-Chain Data Warns of More Downside

• Bitcoin bounced from $72.8K after a US funding bill passed.
• Wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC sold 50,181 BTC in two weeks.
• Social chatter has flipped to sub-$60K targets, indicating fear.

Bitcoin dropped to $72.8K and bounced fast as US lawmakers passed a funding bill that removed the risk of a government shutdown. As the vote remained unclear, risk assets sold off together.

Bitcoin, US stocks, and gold all fell at the same time. Once the bill passed, that pressure eased, and prices lifted. The drop was not clean, as about $30 million in DeFi positions were forced out during the move to $72.8K.

According to Santiment, the flush helped set the short-term bottom, and the bounce that followed was relief-driven, not a trend shift or fresh demand.

Large Holders Are Still Selling

On-chain data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC control a little over two-thirds of all supply. Over the past two weeks, this group sold 50,181 BTC. At the same time, small wallets under 0.01 BTC bought aggressively into the dip.

Large holders selling while retail buys have marked weak phases in past cycles. It shows supply moving from strong hands to weak hands. Santiment flags this setup as very bearish until it flips. For a base to form, selling from these large wallets needs to slow or stop.

Crowd Talk Points Lower, Not Higher

Social data shows a sharp change in tone with Bitcoin chat moving from asking when a bounce comes to asking how low the price can fall. Mentions of $50K-$59K now far exceed talk of $90K-$99K.

History shows that high price talk comes during times of greed, while low price talk is linked with fear. However, markets tend to move against the crowd. Heavy focus on sub-$60K levels leaves room for short relief moves, even inside a weak trend.

Still, sentiment alone does not set a floor. It only shows how one-sided expectations have become.

Loss Supply Near a Decision Zone

CryptoQuant data further shows that the share of Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss has moved back into the 27%-30% range. This same zone appeared during the May 2022 downtrend.

This band acts as a stress test. If the loss supply pushes above 30% and stays there, the downside usually extends as forced selling grows. If it stalls inside this range, selling pressure can dry up, and the price can stabilize.

The market is not in full panic yet. It is testing how much fear price has already absorbed. The next move depends on whether holders can absorb more stress without dumping.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Downtrend Persists as Open Interest Continues to Reset