Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 on Thursday morning in early Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the selloff deepens, prediction market traders on Polymarket are rapidly repricing their expectations — and the data paints a sobering picture for the short term, even as longer-term optimism persists.

Polymarket’s real-money contracts show a market caught between defending $70,000 as a floor and clinging to $100,000 in annual returns.

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February Outlook: $70K Is the Line in the Sand

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contract, with 24 days remaining and nearly $1.78 million in volume on the $70,000 target alone, tells a clear story.

The $70,000 contract surged to 74% probability — up 65% — making it the most heavily traded target for the month. Upside expectations have collapsed: the $85,000 contract plunged 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.

On the downside, the $65,000 contract dropped 13% to 39%, while $60,000 holds at 19%. Probabilities of a crash below $55,000 are in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000–$85,000, with $70,000 as the most probable point.

2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Fraying

The longer-term Polymarket contract shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.

The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume — the highest on the board — signaling traders are focused on downside protection rather than upside speculation. The upper curve drops steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.

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What’s Driving the Selloff

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Multiple factors are converging: rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, strengthening the dollar

The technical damage has been severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, punctuated by a single $561 million inflow day on February 2. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12 — deep in “Extreme Fear” and its lowest since November 2025. Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $5,000 per ounce, underscoring a broad rotation into safe havens.

The Bottom Line

Polymarket’s data offers a real-time window into how traders with money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000–$85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.

The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone is watching.